Energy Market Analysis – 18/08/2025
Welcome to the new Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
European power markets experienced significant volatility during the period, driven primarily by temperature fluctuations and supply constraints. French power prices demonstrated the most dramatic movements, with day-ahead contracts reaching their highest levels since July at €96.56/MWh on 12th August due to temperatures 4°C above average, forecast to rise to 8°C above normal by 16th August. The French baseload week 33 price maintained an upward trend at €64.20/MWh, representing a 71% increase from its 23rd July low.
Nuclear generation faced considerable challenges, with French nuclear output falling below 35GW during peak solar hours due to river cooling restrictions imposed by elevated temperatures. This was partially offset by strong solar generation, which peaked at above 18.3 GW on August 12th. Gas-for-power demand fluctuated between 39-49mcm/day as wind power remained weak throughout the period.
By 14th August, prices began declining as gas prices fell, with the French month-ahead contract dropping 1.2% to €54.85/MWh, whilst German contracts reached their lowest August levels at €82.40/MWh. Italian contracts also declined to €107.90/MWh, narrowing the premium over French power.
Gas
European natural gas markets remained relatively range-bound despite supply disruptions from Norway. Dutch TTF and UK NBP day-ahead contracts experienced regular declines of 1.7-2.37% throughout the period, influenced by mixed geopolitical sentiment and fundamental supply issues.
Norwegian Continental Shelf experienced significant operational challenges, with total exit nominations falling from 340mcm/day to 312.5mcm/day by 12th August. Key disruptions included a compressor failure at Ormen Lange (reducing output by 10mcm/day), process problems at Aasta Hansteen (9mcm/day reduction), and maintenance at Kollsnes processing plant affecting the SEGAL system by 8.1mcm/day.
UK supply dynamics showed Norwegian flows via Langeled fluctuating between 59-61mcm/day, whilst LNG sendout varied between 8-10mcm/day. German gas storage stood at 63.28% fill, below the EU average of 70.67%. Market participants remained focused on geopolitical developments, particularly the scheduled Trump-Putin meeting, which was expected to influence market volatility. Storage auctions continued, with SEFE Storage successfully marketing 2.8TWh of Rehden capacity from 3TWh available.