Energy Market Analysis – 25/08/2025
Welcome to the new Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
Power markets largely tracked natural gas movements throughout the period, with prices initially declining at the start of the week, alongside the gas. German front-month contracts reached yearly lows at €80.61/MWh, whilst French contracts hit €53.50/MWh, their lowest since late July, demonstrating continued volatility in European power markets.
The French market showed particular weakness, with September contracts declining 4% to €51.80/MWh by 19th August following cooler temperatures and reduced demand.
Spanish September products also fell for four consecutive sessions to €68.10/MWh. Unplanned maintenance on the France-Italy interconnector reduced transfer capacity, contributing to regional price disparities.
Nuclear availability in France improved as jellyfish-related restrictions eased, with the final 900MW reactor at Gravelines resuming production. Nuclear capacity was expected to exceed 45GW by late August, providing additional supply to markets where demand remained subdued due to moderate temperatures.
Wind generation forecasts varied significantly, with German baseload factors ranging from 3-20% and UK factors between 11-13%, directly impacting gas-for-power demand and overall market dynamics.
Gas
European natural gas spot prices experienced notable volatility during the period, initially declining over 3% due to falling temperature forecasts and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. However, prices subsequently recovered, with both Dutch TTF and UK NBP showing gains by 21st August despite stable fundamentals, attributed to technical rebounds after weeks of price erosion.
Supply dynamics remained relatively stable, with Norwegian Continental Shelf exit nominations averaging around 320mcm/day. However, concerns emerged regarding upcoming maintenance scheduled for September, which will take 20% of Norwegian production offline.
LNG sendout remained flat at 8mcm/day throughout most of the period, whilst UK gas-for-power demand fluctuated between 30-42mcm/day depending on wind generation patterns.
Storage levels continued rising to 72.7% despite slow injection rates. Geopolitical tensions intensified as diplomatic efforts between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky faced setbacks, with Russian attacks on Ukrainian gas infrastructure escalating. Market participants remained cautious about potential supply disruptions heading into winter, particularly given the ongoing maintenance schedules and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact European gas security.