Energy Market Analysis – 25/06/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload power prices were broadly steady at the start of the week, with wind and solar generation slightly below seasonal norms on Monday, though a modest recovery in wind output was anticipated. Gas-for-power demand was up 2 mcm/day. By Wednesday, baseload had generally strengthened across the curve, supported by wind generation running slightly above normal and solar output expected to rise further. Gas-for-power demand increased a further 3 mcm/day day-on-day. Carbon prices climbed to four-month highs following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s announcement of a UK-EU summit on 22 July, with potential discussions around emissions trading linkage providing upward support.
On Thursday, power prices fell across the balance of the year, though contracts further out remained supported. French nuclear risk increased, with the Golfech plant added to river-heat warnings, joining Bugey, which had already flagged heat restrictions expected from 23 June. By Friday, UK baseload had moved higher despite limited liquidity. Solar output was set to remain well above seasonal norms, while wind was expected to ease slightly the following week. Elevated temperatures forecast through to month-end continued to support gas-for-power demand, which rose sharply by 24 mcm/day on the day.
Gas
UK NBP spot prices softened significantly on Monday, with the system opening 6 mcm/day long. Norwegian flows were impacted by planned maintenance at Troll, reducing output by 18 mcm/day, though Langeled flows to the UK rose by 7 mcm/day. A preliminary US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz weighed on oil prices. By Tuesday, European gas prices edged lower amid stable supply and warmer forecasts, though the near curve remained elevated due to lingering geopolitical risk. EU storage sat at around 44.7% full, with weekly injections up approximately 9.5%. On Wednesday, NBP spot and front-curve prices continued to soften, with the system opening 13 mcm/day long and LNG send-out rising.
Thursday saw further declines, with TTF Day-ahead falling around 2.4% to €40.60/MWh and NBP dropping to 99.41p/th, pressured by stronger Norwegian flows and warmer weather reducing UK demand to around 141 mcm/day. Storage remained a concern at roughly 45% full, approximately 9% below year-ago levels. By Friday, NBP and the forward curve had firmed, with gas-for-power demand surging 24 mcm/day amid significantly above-normal temperatures. Kollsnes maintenance began as planned, trimming UK flows slightly.