Energy Market Analysis – 29/06/2026
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Power
UK baseload prices tracked gas markets higher at the start of the week, with both commodities supported by positive developments in US-Iran negotiations and the return of Norwegian supply following Kollsnes maintenance. Temperatures were forecast to peak significantly above seasonal norms towards the end of the week, keeping demand elevated. By Tuesday, power prices across the curve posted movements broadly in line with gas. Wind generation was forecast to fall to around 2 GW, whilst extremely warm continental temperatures caused several French nuclear reactors to halt output due to rising river temperatures, tightening regional supply. On Wednesday, UK baseload generally strengthened despite thin trading conditions, with gas-for-power demand expected to fall 8 mcm/day the following day as wind output improved.
The heatwave continued to impact French nuclear generation throughout the week, with two further reactors halted by Thursday, applying additional upward pressure to regional power prices, even as the broader curve declined in line with softer gas. By Friday, UK baseload moved higher despite limited liquidity. Wind speeds were expected to increase briefly before falling below seasonal norms over the weekend, whilst temperatures were forecast to begin easing, suggesting some near-term relief in power demand.
Gas
UK NBP prices opened more supported on Monday, boosted by encouraging signals from US-Iran talks in Switzerland and elevated Langeled flows following the conclusion of Kollsnes maintenance. Norwegian exit nominations recovered to 338 mcm/day as several maintenance works concluded over the weekend, with the UK system opening 20 mcm/day long. By Tuesday, TTF Day-Ahead was assessed at €41.77/MWh, with the UK equivalent at 102.14p/th. Norwegian nominations edged slightly lower to 336.2 mcm/day, whilst geopolitical risk premiums continued to influence the curve. Wednesday saw spot prices soften, with the system opening 8 mcm/day short.
Contradictory statements from the US and Iran over nuclear inspections added uncertainty to the fragile peace agreement, though Qatar indicated most LNG production could be restored within weeks. Thursday brought further modest declines, with NBP Day-Ahead easing to 97.82p/th, as Norwegian supply held above 330 mcm/day and increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reduced risk premiums. EU storage reached roughly 47% full, still below historical benchmarks. By Friday, spot and front-month contracts were broadly flat, with Norwegian nominations steady at 335.7 mcm/day. However, a reported vessel attack in the Strait of Hormuz raised fresh concerns over the durability of the ceasefire.