Energy Market Analysis – 28/07/2026
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Power
UK baseload prices tracked gas higher at the start of the week, though limited on-screen liquidity was a consistent theme throughout. Wind generation was forecast to remain below seasonal norms for at least seven days, supporting gas-for-power demand, while solar output remained above normal. Tuesday saw UK Base and Peak lift across the curve, mirroring gains in the gas market as LNG availability tightened and geopolitical risk premiums remained embedded in near-curve contracts. Day-ahead contracts were a relative exception, with the broader curve reflecting sustained concern over winter supply. Wednesday saw gas-for-power demand edge only slightly higher, with UK fundamentals described as relatively comfortable — steady LNG imports, Norwegian flows and UKCS production keeping the system well supplied.
The UK continued to export around 51 mcm/day to the Continent while maintaining storage injections. Thursday brought some relief, with UK Base and Peak falling for most near-curve contracts, though back-end contracts continued to firm as structural tightness and geopolitical risk kept the curve supported. By Friday, power prices were broadly flat at the front of the curve but edged higher further out amid thin liquidity. Gas-for-power demand was forecast to rise 9 mcm/day due to lower wind generation, while solar output remained well above seasonal norms.
Gas
UK NBP prices opened stronger on Monday as US-Iran tensions entered a ninth consecutive day of strikes, with reports of tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz and US air bases targeted across the region. The system opened 16 mcm/day long, supported by increased Norwegian imports via Langeled and LNG sendout totalling 10 mcm/day. The rally intensified on Tuesday, with TTF Day-Ahead settling near €60/MWh — its highest since March — as European LNG regasification averaged roughly 214 mcm/day in July, down from around 260 mcm/day in June. Storage stood at approximately 53% full, with injection rates struggling to keep pace with seasonal targets.
Wednesday saw prices push higher again on headline-driven sentiment, with reports of further US strikes on Iranian targets overnight and President Trump raising the prospect of targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure, prompting warnings of broader retaliation from Tehran.. Thursday brought a modest pullback, with NBP Day-Ahead falling around 1.2% to just below 149p/th as temperatures eased and cooling demand softened. Norwegian flows held steady at around 320 mcm/day, though EU storage remained approximately 11 percentage points below year-ago levels at 54.4% full. By Friday, prices were broadly sideways at the front of the curve, with Norwegian nominations at 321.1 mcm/day and oil prices approaching $100/bbl amid further shipping attacks.