Energy Market Analysis – 20/07/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload prices tracked gas higher at the start of the week, with limited liquidity a consistent feature throughout. French nuclear availability was an additional focus, with the 1.3 GW Golfech 2 reactor confirmed offline until 19 July due to high cooling water temperatures, indirectly supporting neighbouring power markets. Temperatures were forecast to remain well above seasonal norms through the week, peaking around 16 July. Tuesday saw UK Base and Peak lift through the full curve in line with gas market gains, as Southern European temperatures approached 40°C and cooling demand surged. On Wednesday, weakening wind generation was expected to push gas-for-power demand to around 52 mcm/day, providing additional support to power prices.
Thursday brought a divergence between UK and continental markets. Improving wind generation in both Germany and the UK began to weigh on UK power contracts, which softened slightly on the day. However, French power gained after the nuclear operator announced a 10-day outage at Flamanville-3 and delayed the restart of Cattenom-4 until 7 August, tightening the French supply outlook considerably. By Friday, UK baseload continued to firm alongside gas, with wind generation forecast to step down and gas-for-power demand expected at 33 mcm/day. Ongoing US-Iran strikes provided further upward pressure across energy markets heading into the weekend.
Gas
Prices firmed at the start of the week as geopolitical tensions escalated sharply following US strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Tehran again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, though mixed signals around physical flows tempered the immediate supply impact. Norwegian flows recovered slightly by around 3 mcm/day and European LNG sendout was expected to rise by approximately 200 GWh/day. By Tuesday, TTF Day-Ahead settled at nearly €53/MWh — around 21% higher since the start of July — with EU storage at roughly 52% full and injection rates running approximately 14% below last year. Risk premiums briefly eased after President Trump withdrew a proposed 20% Strait of Hormuz transit fee, though buying interest quickly returned as regional tensions persisted.
Wednesday saw gas-for-power demand forecast at around 52 mcm/day, with Norwegian nominations stable at 329.9 mcm/day. Several UKCS outages were resolved, pointing to improved domestic production. Thursday brought further curve support, with EU storage standing at just 52.8% full — more than 10 percentage points below year-ago levels — and LNG imports running well below June averages. By Friday, prices continued to gain across the curve amid a sixth consecutive night of US-Iran strikes, with the system opening 15 mcm/day long and Norwegian flows to the UK nominated at 69 mcm/day.