Energy Market Analysis – 27/04/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
Throughout the week, UK power prices broadly tracked movements in the gas market, heavily influenced by fluctuating wind generation and geopolitical developments. On Monday, power prices rebounded across the curve following news of the Strait of Hormuz closure over the weekend. By Tuesday, lower wind output in both the UK and Germany provided further support to the market. Although some UK Base and Peak spot contracts fell, the rest of the forward curve moved upward. This trend continued into Wednesday, where UK baseload liquidity remained limited but prices edged higher. Forecasts indicated a significant drop in wind speeds, expected to remain below normal for the rest of April, consequently boosting gas-for-power demand by 15 mcm/day.
Thursday saw further declines in renewable output, with UK wind generation forecast to plummet by around 55% and German output by 10%. Consequently, UK Base prices lifted throughout the curve, bolstered by ongoing diplomatic uncertainties. By Friday, UK baseload power had firmed once again, mirroring the upward trajectory of gas prices. Gas-for-power demand was forecast to rise by a further 4 mcm/day for the day-ahead, ensuring power markets ended the week on a bullish note.
Gas
Gas markets were predominantly driven by geopolitical volatility and fluctuating Norwegian supply this week. Prices rebounded sharply on Monday following the weekend closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US seizure of an Iranian vessel. Ongoing uncertainties surrounding a US-Iran ceasefire kept the forward curve elevated throughout the week, whilst the IEA warned that the conflict has already cost approximately 120 bcm in projected global LNG supply for 2026–2030. Towards the week’s end, an extended Israel-Lebanon ceasefire provided some diplomatic progress, though wider Middle Eastern tensions remained high. Fundamentally, Norwegian gas flows were highly variable. Total exit nominations dropped to 245 mcm/day on Tuesday due to planned maintenance at the Troll field, but as curtailments eased by Wednesday, flows recovered to over 300 mcm/day.
The UK system opened comfortably long early in the week but tightened to 2 mcm/day short by Friday. Despite temperatures remaining broadly milder than the seasonal average across North-Western Europe, spot prices for both the UK NBP and Dutch TTF trended upwards, supported by rising gas-for-power demand to compensate for weak wind generation. Meanwhile, European gas storage levels remained robust, ending the period at 30.7% full.