Energy Market Analysis – 24/11/2025
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Power
UK baseload prices tracked gas movements, opening higher on Monday before weakening by Friday, though liquidity remained limited throughout. Wind forecasts remained choppy initially before stabilising within year-on-year averages, with gas-for-power demand expected to fluctuate accordingly.
The cold weather and rising heating demand supported price increases across the curve, particularly for nearer contracts. Carbon prices reached weekly highs, with colder conditions fuelling bullish sentiment. December forecasts showed initial warming but potential cooling mid-month, adding uncertainty.
Gas
UK NBP and European gas prices showed volatility throughout the week, initially rising on cold weather before weakening towards Friday. The UK system experienced strong supply, opening 29mcm/day long on Monday with robust LNG sendout reaching 96mcm/day by week’s end. Norwegian flows remained healthy despite unplanned outages at Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin fields (the latter returning online Wednesday), with exit nominations fluctuating between 319-333mcm/day.
Temperatures fell significantly below seasonal norms—4-5°C lower than average—driving increased heating demand, though forecasts suggested warming towards month-end.
Storage levels declined steadily from 82.02% to 80.71% as withdrawals continued for four consecutive days. The cold snap extended across Europe, though its impact on curve prices diminished for longer-dated contracts. Market fundamentals remained relatively steady with minimal forecast changes to temperatures and wind generation. JKM prices increased with stronger Asian buying interest, whilst European LNG deliveries were slightly lower in November. Oil prices declined on oversupply concerns and potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks, though Russian sanctions provided support.