Energy Market Analysis – 17/11/2025
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload prices have exhibited varied movements throughout the week. On Monday, prices opened higher than Friday’s close with limited liquidity. Tuesday saw spot prices fall whilst curve movements remained marginal in both directions. Wednesday brought upward pressure across power markets, with forecasts suggesting choppy wind generation this week but largely above average.
Looking ahead to next week, windspeeds are expected to decline below average before gradually rising, potentially reducing gas burn requirements for electricity generation. Thursday witnessed price declines following similar movements in the gas market. In carbon markets, UK Allowances reached a new two-year high following EU Council authorisation for negotiations to link UK and EU Emission Trading Systems.
Additionally, Wylfa in North Wales was selected as the site for Britain’s first state-owned small modular reactor plant, developed by Rolls-Royce. Friday opened with prices above Thursday’s close, though liquidity remained limited. Gas demand for power is forecast to increase week-on-week as wind generation remains mixed into next week.
Gas
UK NBP spot prices have experienced mixed movements, remaining largely flat on Monday despite UK LNG sendout rising by 18 mcm/day due to strong arrivals into South Hook and high stock levels. Tuesday brought steep declines in spot contracts despite colder forecasts for late November, offset by Norwegian output reaching its highest level since November 2024 at 343.4 mcm/day. Pan-European storage stood at 82.55% fullness, recording a sixth consecutive day of withdrawals.
Wednesday saw prices edge upwards with total exit nominations from Norwegian sources marginally down, whilst UK LNG sendout remained robust at 45 mcm/day.
Thursday posted mixed spot movements amid strong Norwegian supply (341 mcm/day) and falling temperatures, with ongoing Karsto maintenance extended until 15 November. UK temperatures are forecast to fall 6.28°C below normal by 18 November. Continental gas storage stood at 82.23% on Friday, with withdrawals lower than previous years. Geopolitically, Hungary received a one-year exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil and gas.