Energy Market Analysis – 22/09/2025
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Power
UK and European power prices demonstrated mixed movements throughout the period, generally trending upward despite limited market liquidity. Power futures increased by the close of Thursday’s session as natural gas prices reached weekly highs and temperatures across Europe were forecast to drop 1-3 degrees Celsius below seasonal norms over the following week. Gas-for-power demand was expected to rise due to declining wind generation, which remained above seasonal averages.
Average French nuclear output for October was predicted to reach approximately 41GW, representing an increase from September levels.
The power market showed correlation with gas price movements, with baseload prices remaining roughly flat across the curve by Friday morning compared to the previous close. However, trading activity remained constrained by limited liquidity throughout the observation period.
The anticipated reduction in renewable generation, particularly wind power output, was expected to increase reliance on gas-fired generation in the coming days. The power sector’s dependency on gas pricing became evident as natural gas fundamentals directly influenced electricity market dynamics, with both markets responding to similar weather forecasts and supply-demand balances across the European energy complex.
Gas
UK NBP gas prices exhibited volatility throughout the period, opening softer on Monday before experiencing mixed movements as the week progressed. The UK gas system maintained a long position of 10mcm/day on Monday and Wednesday, reducing to 3mcm/day by Friday morning. Norwegian gas imports remained relatively stable despite planned and unplanned maintenance activities. Capacity constraints on the Langeled pipeline were expected to ease during the week, with 21mcm/day returning online by 18 September. However, unplanned maintenance on the Troll gas field curtailed output by 45.5mcm/day due to compressor failure, lasting until 20 September.
Temperature forecasts significantly influenced market sentiment, with the latest EC46 predictions showing elevated temperatures until 22 September before converging with seasonal norms. LNG sendout remained steady at around 10mcm/day throughout most of the period. European gas storage continued injections, reaching 81.09% capacity by Friday according to AGSI data. The market remained range-bound amid steady fundamentals, though participants monitored ongoing geopolitical developments, including potential EU sanctions on Russian energy trade and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure. Export capacity changes were anticipated from October, with BBL pipeline showing zero bookings and IUK pipeline scheduled for three weeks offline maintenance.