Energy Market Analysis – 15/09/2025
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK power prices have experienced considerable volatility throughout the week, with limited liquidity affecting trading conditions. Initially, prices rose significantly on Monday before showing mixed movements as the week progressed. By Wednesday, UK baseload prices were trading roughly in line with close assessments, though pushing marginally higher. However, by Thursday’s close, power prices had tracked downward across the curve, with only weekend contracts receiving support.
Several factors have influenced power market dynamics. Elevated wind power production and increased nuclear availability in France helped create downward pressure on prompt prices, with the UK win-25 contract decreasing by approximately £0.6/MWh on Tuesday. French nuclear capacity returning online, combined with stronger wind supplies and mild temperatures, has contributed to price erosion in recent weeks.
The latest weather forecasts suggest cooler temperatures initially, converging with seasonal normal temperatures by 14th September, with expectations that temperatures will remain around or above seasonal averages through the end of October, which could continue to support the bearish sentiment in power markets.
Gas
UK NBP natural gas prices have shown mixed performance throughout the week, with support of 1-1.5 pence per therm across the curve on Monday before experiencing varied movements. Prices were mixed on Tuesday amongst stable Norwegian flows and colder continental temperatures, with total exit nominations from the Norwegian Shelf at 239.5 mcm/day. By Friday morning, UK NBP prices had marginally reduced through the curve.
Geopolitical tensions have significantly impacted gas markets, with Russia’s extensive offensive against Ukraine prompting the EU to consider additional strategies for eliminating Russian gas dependence. The situation intensified with targeted airstrikes and drone offensives affecting regional stability.
Meanwhile, LNG dynamics remain notable, with no cargoes anticipated for UK shores over coming weeks, whilst continental European efforts to fill storage continue. Norwegian supply has remained relatively stable according to schedules, though additional outages are scheduled through September, including a sizeable 12 mcm/day outage at Kristin for 23-24 September. The EU reiterates its commitment to eliminating Russian imports by 2028, with legislative proposals progressing and a ban on short-term contracts beginning next year.