Energy Market Analysis – 14/09/2026
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Power
UK baseload tracked gas higher throughout the week, with multi-year highs reached across the curve by mid-week. On Monday, gas-for-power demand was broadly flat day-on-day, though wind generation was forecast to peak on Tuesday before falling below seasonal norms from Thursday. Liquidity remained consistently thin across the curve. Tuesday saw power prices lift across the curve in line with gas, as European wind output was forecast to weaken significantly — UK wind projected to fall almost 50% to around 9.2 GW on 9 September. The broader bullish sentiment from geopolitical escalation and tighter storage supported gains through both prompt and forward contracts.
Wednesday brought continued strength, with baseload tracking gas to further multi-year highs. Gas-for-power demand was forecast to ease 5 mcm/day as wind speeds recovered marginally towards seasonal norms, though the overall price direction remained firmly upward. Thursday saw the power curve lift once more in line with gas, with German and UK wind output expected at approximately 7.1 GW and 7.4 GW respectively on 11 September. By Friday, front-of-curve baseload softened alongside gas as wind speeds were forecast to increase, reducing gas-for-power demand by 10 mcm/day. Back-end contracts firmed modestly amid thin liquidity, with oil prices remaining above $100/bbl despite the prompt easing.
Gas
UK NBP prices continued to firm on Monday, with the system opening 7 mcm/day short. Norwegian nominations stood at 280.9 mcm/day, with unplanned Troll maintenance curtailing output by 9.9 mcm/day, partially offset by the return of Oseberg supporting Langeled flows. Tuesday brought sharp gains, with TTF Day-Ahead rising around 4.4% to €76.43/MWh and NBP climbing 4.5% to 189.7p/th, as cooler temperatures lifted UK demand forecasts by around 18% to 118 mcm/day. Oil infrastructure attacks in Saudi Arabia added further bullish sentiment. Norwegian exports recovered to 295 mcm/day, with UK-bound flows rising over 30% to 38 mcm/day. EU storage stood at 66.9% full, approximately 12 percentage points below year-ago levels.
Wednesday saw further multi-year highs, with the system opening 7 mcm/day long and Norwegian nominations recovering to 294.8 mcm/day. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced attacks on ten ships and a US military base in Jordan, pushing Brent above $100/bbl for the first time since July. Thursday extended the rally, with TTF Day-Ahead settling at €82.88/MWh — its highest since December 2022 — as Norwegian flows to Europe fell to 291.6 mcm/day and UK demand was forecast to rise a further 6.5 mcm/day. By Friday, spot prices eased from multi-year highs, with the system opening 19 mcm/day long and Norwegian nominations at 291.9 mcm/day.