Energy Market Analysis – 07/09/2026
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Power
Power prices tracked gas sharply higher on Tuesday, with gains across the curve as LNG availability tightened and wind generation was forecast to weaken significantly. German wind output was expected to fall more than 40% to around 11 GW, while UK wind generation was set to decline roughly 10% to 7 GW. Escalating US-Iran tensions and rising Asian LNG prices reinforced the bullish sentiment across both gas and power markets. Wednesday saw baseload continue to firm alongside gas, despite gas-for-power demand expected to ease around 15 mcm/day as wind improved. Solar output was forecast to rise over the weekend, though partially offset by lower wind. The broader weather outlook was revised cooler, with temperatures expected to fall below seasonal norms from mid-week.
Thursday brought some relief across the power curve, with easing gas prices pulling forward contracts lower. UK October baseload fell to just below £140/MWh, while Calendar 2027 traded around £110/MWh. Stronger German wind generation helped ease near-term supply concerns. By Friday, UK baseload strengthened despite front-of-curve gas softening, with gas-for-power demand forecast to rise 11 mcm/day as wind speeds were expected to ease. Concerns over continental gas storage and winter supply security continued to underpin the forward power curve heading into the heating season.
Gas
European gas markets surged on Tuesday, with TTF Day-Ahead settling at €72.01/MWh — up around 9% day-on-day — and NBP rising to 176.5p/th. LNG inflows fell sharply to around 200 mcm/day, roughly half the previous session’s level, while EU storage stood at 65.1% full, approximately 12 percentage points below year-ago levels. Norwegian exports held at around 292 mcm/day. Asian LNG prices climbed above $25/MMBtu, reinforcing bullish sentiment across the forward curve. Wednesday saw further gains, though the UK system opened 7 mcm/day short. Norwegian nominations fell to 285 mcm/day, with UK-bound flows down 6 mcm/day. Planned Dvalin maintenance commenced, expected to curtail output by around 8 mcm/day through to 26 September. Escalating US-Iran military exchanges pushed oil prices to six-week highs.
Thursday brought a modest pullback, with NBP Day-Ahead easing around 2.6% as geopolitical risk premiums partially unwound. EU storage reached approximately 65.6% full, still well below recent historical levels. Norwegian nominations fell further to 277.9 mcm/day, with Kollsnes continuing to operate with a 6 mcm/day curtailment. By Friday, prices opened slightly firmer before softening, with the system opening around 20 mcm/day long. Total Norwegian nominations eased to 274.9 mcm/day as Troll entered unplanned corrective maintenance, reducing output by 6.7 mcm/day and offsetting the conclusion of Kollsnes repairs.