Energy Market Analysis – 08/12/2025
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Power
UK baseload prices showed mixed movement across the week. On Monday, prices posted some gains despite limited liquidity. Tuesday saw day-ahead contracts lift, though curve prices remained rangebound with mixed trends. Wednesday continued the downward trajectory despite negative geopolitical developments, as temperatures were forecast to reach nearly 12 degrees Celsius the following week. Thursday witnessed further declines as mild and windy weather suppressed demand, with wind load factors forecast at 51–44% for the UK and 65–48% for Germany. Power prices followed gas market sentiment, influenced by these bearish weather forecasts.
Friday morning brought minor gains whilst remaining rangebound, with limited liquidity observed. Wind power generation remained comfortably above seasonal norms throughout the period, supporting bearish trends and potentially limiting the need for gas-fired generation. French nuclear availability stood at 53.6GW on Friday, with forecasts showing an expected rise the following week. Overall, power markets were heavily influenced by weather patterns and renewable generation levels.
Gas
UK gas prices opened softer on Monday, with the system 19mcm/day long due to increased LNG sendout and higher UKCS receipts. Tuesday saw NBP and European day-ahead contracts edge down amid healthy Norwegian supply, with total exit nominations at 328mcm/day. Wednesday morning prices continued declining despite geopolitical concerns, as UK LNG sendout increased to 82mcm/day and an unplanned Troll outage curtailed capacity by 8mcm/day. The European Council announced plans to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027.
Thursday’s downward trend continued with mild, windy weather limiting demand, forecast at 266mcm/day for 5 December. Pan-European storage levels fell to 73.85%, whilst Europe imported 33.53bcm of LNG since 1 October, up from 24.95bcm during the same 2024 period. Friday saw minor gains with the UK system opening 6mcm/day short, though prices remained rangebound. Norwegian nominations reached 340mcm/day as Troll maintenance concluded, whilst storage withdrawals continued at 27mcm/day.