Energy Market Analysis – 02/12/2025
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload prices mirrored gas movements throughout the week, declining across the curve as geopolitical tensions eased and fundamentals remained bearish. Wind generation proved particularly strong, contributing to reduced gas-for-power demand, especially towards week’s end when temperatures warmed significantly above seasonal norms. Friday showed limited liquidity, with Q126 posting above the previous close.
European power prices followed similar trends, with the notable exception of the Summer 28 contract. French nuclear output provided additional bearish pressure, with December output expected around 52GW—the highest in nearly a decade—as three reactors returned to service. This level, last achieved in 2018, further supported the downward price trajectory across European power markets throughout the week.
Gas
UK NBP prices declined across the week as geopolitical tensions eased following progressive Russia-Ukraine peace talks, with the White House noting Ukraine’s positive response to proposals. Norwegian nominations remained robust throughout, ranging from 328–339 mcm/day, with no unplanned outages and expectations of production nearing nameplate capacity by early December. UK Continental Shelf receipts stayed strong around 106 mcm/day, whilst LNG sendout remained healthy at 69–82 mcm/day, with six cargoes expected over the fortnight.
European spot prices fell despite colder-than-average temperatures (2°C below seasonal norms) due to strong wind generation and healthy LNG supplies. UK demand was forecasted 45.3 mcm/day above normal mid-week but later dropped significantly to 210 mcm/day (below the 253 mcm/day seasonal norm) as temperatures climbed 5°C above average. Storage withdrawals continued, with continental stocks at 77.2% by week’s end. The curve followed spot prices lower on bearish fundamentals and continued peace negotiations, though Friday saw limited liquidity with prices slightly above Thursday’s close.