Energy Market Analysis – 07/06/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload power tracked gas movements closely throughout the week. Monday saw limited liquidity and mixed gas-for-power demand. Tuesday brought weakness across the curve as wind generation surged sharply (projected 83% rise to 10.4 GW for 3 June), with UK Base and Peak prices falling and hydro reserve outlooks across Mediterranean markets deteriorating. Wednesday witnessed power prices firming with gas, though liquidity remained thin, with very high wind generation forecast suppressing gas-for-power demand.
Thursday’s UK Base and Peak lifted on the spot, potentially reflecting wind revisions, whilst longer-dated contracts lost ground; progress towards electrification remained slow at 23–24% versus 32% 2030 targets, with high power prices continuing to constrain demand growth. Friday concluded with baseload power largely tracking gas higher, though wind generation was forecast to gradually ease back towards seasonal norms whilst remaining relatively healthy.
Gas
The week saw notable fluctuations in European gas markets driven by supply and weather dynamics. Monday opened with the July 2026 contract firming as the gas market rolled into a new front month, whilst the UK system began short by 6 mcm/day. Norwegian imports remained steady at 45 mcm/day with total UK LNG send-out at 8 mcm/day. Tuesday brought softer prices (Dutch TTF down 3.1%) owing to improved renewable output and balanced weather, though Norwegian exports increased slightly to 285.9 mcm/day despite reductions at Oseberg. Wednesday saw NBP prices firm across the curve as the system opened 10 mcm/day long, with strong wind forecasts suppressing gas-for-power demand.
Thursday’s markets traded rangebound-to-softer with increased Norwegian supply (307.3 mcm/day) and cooler weather weighing on prompt prices; TTF month-ahead eased to €48.805/MWh. Friday concluded with NBP spot prices rising, Norwegian nominations reaching 313 mcm/day as scheduled maintenance commenced at Kårstø, and flows to the UK nominated 2 mcm/day higher. Throughout the week, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided underlying support to deferred pricing, whilst storage levels remained below year-prior levels at approximately