Energy Market Analysis – 24/10/2025
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload softened slightly at the front of the curve on Monday amid thin liquidity, though back-end contracts firmed. Gas-for-power demand was forecast to ease 7 mcm/day as wind speeds were expected to rise above seasonal norms. Temperatures were set to nudge above seasonal norms through the week following a slightly cooler start. Tuesday saw power prices decline across the curve in line with gas, as Middle East mediation hopes and healthy Norwegian supply weighed on sentiment. Wind generation remained broadly supportive, and UK temperatures were forecast between 7°C and 16°C for the remainder of the week. Wednesday brought a reversal, with baseload firming alongside gas despite gas-for-power demand easing a further 6 mcm/day. Wind generation remained above seasonal norms but forecasts were revised lower, while the ECMWF 46-day outlook pointed to predominantly below-seasonal-normal temperatures — a shift from previous runs that provided additional curve support.
Oil prices gained over $1/bbl on escalating Middle East tensions. Thursday saw power prices strengthen sharply across the curve, tracking gas to multi-year highs as tighter LNG availability, colder conditions and the EU’s first net storage withdrawal of winter combined to drive bullish sentiment. Asian LNG strength reinforced competition for flexible cargoes, supporting the forward curve. By Friday, UK baseload pushed higher again, with gas-for-power demand forecast to fall 6 mcm/day as stronger wind was expected through the weekend. The extended temperature outlook was revised cooler than previously anticipated, maintaining support for winter contracts.
Gas
UK NBP prices firmed on Monday as the system opened 13 mcm/day long. Norwegian nominations stood at 339.1 mcm/day, with an unplanned Åsgard outage curtailing 5.2 mcm/day through to 1 November. UK-bound flows rose 9 mcm/day, while LNG sendout was nominated at 13 mcm/day. Oil prices slipped from five-month highs as Trump’s decision to waive sanctions on Russia raised the prospect of additional Russian fuel exports. Tuesday brought a pullback, with TTF Day-Ahead easing to €86.95/MWh and NBP falling to 209.79p/th, as Norwegian nominations recovered to 341.6 mcm/day with 89.1 mcm/day directed to the UK. Reports of Middle East mediation efforts weighed on risk premiums, though November JKM rising to $30.526/MMBtu provided some underlying support. Wednesday saw prices recover, with the system opening 13 mcm/day long and Norwegian nominations declining to 324.9 mcm/day as planned Troll maintenance commenced, reducing UK-bound flows by 7 mcm/day.
Thursday brought the sharpest move of the week, with TTF Day-Ahead breaking above €90/MWh for the first time since December 2022, reaching €90.17/MWh, while NBP gained around 2.5% to 220p/th. Norwegian nominations fell to 304 mcm/day — the lowest of the month — as curtailments reached 67.5 mcm/day. European LNG deliveries dropped to 202.9 mcm/day, roughly 49% below the month-to-date average, while EU storage recorded its first net withdrawal of winter at 74.6% full. By Friday, NBP extended to multi-year highs with Norwegian nominations recovering to 324.3 mcm/day, though a Troll outage continued to curtail around 13 mcm/day and UK-bound flows eased to 83 mcm/day.