Energy Market Analysis – 12/07/2026
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Power
UK baseload prices were modestly firmer at the start of the week despite limited liquidity, with gas-for-power demand forecast to rise 6 mcm/day as wind speeds weakened. The trend gathered pace on Tuesday, with UK Base and Peak lifting across the curve, particularly on near-term contracts through Winter 2026, as the market reacted to LNG supply concerns and subdued renewable output. Wednesday saw further gains, with gas-for-power demand forecast to rise a further 4 mcm/day as wind generation declined, with only one day expected to exceed seasonal norms over the coming week. Temperatures remained significantly above seasonal norms, with a peak anticipated on Friday.
Thursday was the most volatile session of the week for power. NESO issued its third summer Electricity Margin Notice for the evening peak, while wind generation fell to around 1.4 GW — less than half the previous day’s level. French nuclear supply was further constrained by the Chooz-2 reactor being taken offline between 10–25 July, and lower hydro availability added to regional tightness. UK Base and Peak prices strengthened accordingly. By Friday, baseload softened slightly in line with gas as temperatures began to cool and wind generation was forecast to recover above seasonal norms over the weekend, easing near-term power demand pressure.
Gas
UK NBP spot prices softened on Monday, with the system opening 14 mcm/day long. Norwegian nominations held at 328.8 mcm/day, with Oseberg the only facility under maintenance. The relative calm was short-lived — Tuesday brought a sharp rally after reports emerged of an attack on a Qatari LNG tanker near the Strait of Hormuz. TTF front-month climbed towards €46/MWh and NBP month-ahead rose above 111p/th. LNG nominations into European markets had already averaged around 200 mcm/day in July, falling to roughly 160 mcm/day on the 7th, compounding supply concerns. EU storage stood at approximately 50% full, continuing to lag seasonal norms. Wednesday saw further gains, with Norwegian nominations slipping to 324.4 mcm/day following an unplanned compressor outage cutting around 9 mcm/day.
Geopolitical tensions escalated after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for attacks on US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. Thursday brought the sharpest move of the week, with TTF Day-Ahead breaching €50/MWh and NBP gaining around 4% to 121.59p/th, driven by reduced Norwegian supply, delays to restarting Ras Laffan LNG production, and continued Strait of Hormuz disruption. By Friday, prices edged slightly lower as temperatures began to ease and Åsgard returned to service, with Norwegian nominations at 319.8 mcm/day and Langeled flows up 10 mcm/day.