Energy Market Analysis – 06/07/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload prices tracked gas markets higher throughout the week, with limited liquidity a consistent feature across the curve. On Monday, gas-for-power demand was forecast to rise 6 mcm/day due to softer wind and solar output, providing additional support to power prices. Tuesday saw power prices extend gains in line with the broader gas rally, with UK wind output remaining subdued at around 3.8–3.9 GW, keeping gas-for-power demand elevated. By Wednesday, the picture shifted slightly, with gas-for-power demand forecast to fall 11 mcm/day as wind and solar output strengthened. Wind speeds were expected to remain healthy into early the following week before dropping below seasonal norms. On Thursday, power prices stepped up across the curve in line with gas.
French nuclear output improved markedly, ramping up to 40 GW as reactors returned from maintenance following the recent heatwave, easing regional supply concerns. However, another period of extreme heat was forecast for France, raising the prospect of further thermal constraints on nuclear generation. By Friday, UK baseload moved marginally higher alongside gas. Gas-for-power demand was forecast to rise around 12 mcm/day due to weaker wind and solar, while French nuclear availability was on course to reach a three-month high, though further heat warnings tempered the outlook.
Gas
UK NBP spot prices firmed on Monday, with the system opening 14 mcm/day long. Norwegian flows increased overall despite an unplanned outage at Åsgard, with UK-bound flows rising 10 mcm/day via FLAGS and Langeled. A renewed US-Iran ceasefire agreement raised hopes of preserving diplomatic progress around the Strait of Hormuz. The rally extended into Tuesday, with TTF Day-Ahead rising around 2.3% to €43.57/MWh and NBP climbing to 105.3p/th, marking a third consecutive daily gain. EU storage stood at just 48.6% full, roughly 9.5 percentage points below the same period last year, with injection rates significantly behind target. Norwegian nominations remained robust at 338 mcm/day, though planned maintenance was expected to push curtailments to around 45 mcm/day by 4 July.
By Wednesday, prices firmed further as the market rolled into the August front-month contract, with Gassco nominations rising to 345.8 mcm/day. Iran’s refusal to meet US envoys directly clouded diplomatic prospects. Thursday saw TTF reach €44/MWh and NBP climb to 105.78p/th, supported by lagging storage at 49.1% full and LNG imports running roughly 15% lower month-on-month. By Friday, NBP edged higher again, with the system opening 7 mcm/day long and Norwegian nominations easing to 327.3 mcm/day as Dvalin maintenance commenced.