Following on from our previous update, which can be found here: What Conflict in the Middle East Means for UK Gas and Energy Prices

The UK Government has said it does not expect the UK’s gas supply to be disrupted. This is because the UK gets gas from a mix of sources, including the North Sea, Norway, LNG terminals, European interconnectors, and storage. It has also been stated that only around 1% of the UK’s gas supply in 2025 came from Qatar, so the UK is not directly dependent on Gulf LNG in the same way as some other countries.

However, UK prices are still affected by what happens globally. Gas and oil are traded internationally, so when a major shipping route such as the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, traders add a “risk premium” to prices. In simple terms, the market becomes nervous, and prices rise because buyers are worried about future supply. The US Energy Information Administration reported that European LNG prices had risen sharply following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with TTF futures around 35% higher than before the closure for the week ending 24 April 2026.

What this means for UK gas prices

For now, the UK gas system is coping. National Gas has said that Great Britain is expected to have enough capacity and supply to meet demand this summer, helped by lower seasonal demand and a mix of supply sources such as domestic production, Norway, LNG, and storage. 

That said, the market remains sensitive. Planned summer maintenance on gas infrastructure, lower LNG arrivals, changes in Norwegian flows, and any further escalation in the Middle East can all move prices quickly. This means business gas prices may not rise in a straight line, but they are likely to remain volatile.

For a business owner, this means the price you are offered at renewal could change noticeably from one week to the next. If you are on a flexible contract, deemed rate, or out-of-contract rate, you may feel market movements faster than a business on a fixed deal.

Why are electricity prices also affected?

Even if your business uses more electricity than gas, gas prices still matter. This is because gas-fired power stations are often needed to balance the UK electricity system, especially when wind or solar output is low. National Gas has highlighted that gas generation remains critical for balancing the system during periods of changing renewable output.

The UK is producing more renewable electricity, which helps reduce the amount of gas needed. In the three months from December 2025 to February 2026, renewables provided 51.8% of electricity generation by Major Power Producers, while gas provided 35.5%. But because gas still often sets the wholesale electricity price, higher gas prices can still feed through into electricity contracts.

This is one reason UK businesses continue to face high electricity costs. The Office for National Statistics has noted that UK industrial electricity prices have been high by international standards and that gas plays a major role in setting UK electricity prices.