Energy Market Analysis – 04/05/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload power prices largely mirrored the movements observed in the gas market, displaying a similar trend of firming prices against a backdrop of limited market liquidity. The week began with baseload power tracking the firmer gas prices, although demand was moderated by expectations of increased wind generation and warmer-than-seasonal temperatures. As the week progressed, the interplay between renewable generation and gas-for-power demand became a defining feature. By Wednesday, for instance, an increase in gas-for-power demand was projected—despite robust wind and solar contributions—due to reduced nuclear availability.
As the week drew to a close, the market focus shifted toward the bank holiday weekend. Forecasts indicated a sharp decline in wind generation, which necessitated a significant increase in gas-for-power demand for the day-ahead. This, combined with a move towards cooler-than-seasonal temperatures and a retraction in renewable output, exerted upward pressure on power prices. Consequently, the power curve tracked the firming gas prices through Friday, reversing the mid-week declines that had been driven by more favourable weather conditions and stronger renewable generation. Overall, the power sector remained tightly correlated with gas market fundamentals, with supply availability and changing weather patterns dictating the pricing trajectory throughout the five-day period.
Gas
Throughout the week, UK NBP spot prices and the forward curve exhibited notable volatility, generally tracking broader geopolitical tensions and supply-side shifts. Early in the week, prices firmed amid uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern transit routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, and stalled peace negotiations between the US and Iran, which also supported rising oil prices. By mid-week, European spot prices faced downward pressure due to healthy storage injection levels and expectations of warmer-than-seasonal weather, which tempered demand. However, this trend was not uniform; despite dips mid-week, prices firmed again by Friday.
Supply factors remained a key driver of market sentiment. Norwegian flows fluctuated throughout the period, affected by both planned summer maintenance and unplanned outages, including the disruption at Gullfaks. By the end of the week, Norwegian exit nominations dropped to a ten-day low. LNG arrivals remained constrained, with limited cargo deliveries scheduled for UK ports. While storage levels continued to rise, reaching over 32% across Europe, ongoing maintenance schedules and geopolitical risks to oil supply and trade routes kept the gas market sensitive, with prices closing the week higher than they opened on Monday.