Energy Market Analysis – 02/02/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload power prices displayed mixed movement throughout the week. Initially, the curve showed varied performance with some contracts lifting whilst others eroded marginal premiums. By mid-week, prices fell below previous closing levels despite improved supply conditions, including robust Norwegian flows and elevated LNG availability creating comfortable system balance. However, the market maintained fragility due to low storage levels and US LNG uncertainty. Towards week’s end, power prices followed gas market trends, lifting throughout the curve as temperatures remained below seasonal norms and wind generation forecasts weakened.
Friday morning saw prices opening higher with limited liquidity, as gas-for-power demand was expected to increase due to lower wind power expectations. Throughout the period, wind speeds remained choppy but generally close to seasonal norms, though forecasts showed fluctuations around these averages heading into the weekend. The power market remained closely correlated with gas price movements and weather-driven demand factors.
Gas
UK NBP gas prices showed considerable volatility across the week. The period began with mixed signals—bullish momentum in spot and front-end contracts whilst longer-dated prices edged lower. Supply remained robust with Norwegian flows steady at around 339 mcm/day despite unplanned maintenance at Asgard, and UK LNG sendout initially elevated at 116 mcm/day from Isle of Grain. European storage stood at 45.59% with ongoing withdrawals. Mid-week saw downward pressure from revised temperature forecasts closer to seasonal averages and higher winds, though concerns remained about potential sudden stratospheric warming causing cold weather in late February.
By week’s end, prices lifted due to below-average temperatures and lower wind generation forecasts. Friday’s LNG sendout fell to 77 mcm/day, whilst storage levels declined to 42.90%. Geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the US, along with rising crude oil prices reaching nearly six-month highs, added upward pressure throughout the period.
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