Energy Market Analysis – 09/02/2025
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
From 2–6 February, UK power prices largely tracked gas and weather trends. On Monday, power prices fell amid limited liquidity, improving wind output, and stable gas-for-power demand. Tuesday saw baseload spot prices firm, but the forward curve softened as milder weather eased expectations. On Wednesday, power prices edged higher alongside firmer gas, though liquidity remained thin; strong wind generation continued, with a slight dip expected over the weekend.
Thursday brought mixed performance: UK base and peak spot prices rose on some contracts, but the forward curve weakened, partly due to expected Flamanville nuclear returns and easing wind output. By Friday, baseload power rose again in line with higher gas prices, with strong near-term wind limiting upside, though forecasts pointed to cooler conditions ahead. Overall, power markets were shaped by wind variability, gas price direction, and shifting temperature forecasts, with near-term volatility but softer forward sentiment.
Gas
UK and European gas prices weakened early in the week due to milder weather, slowing storage withdrawals, and ample supply. On Monday, prices fell as the front-month rolled into March-26, with the UK system long, Norwegian flows slightly higher, and LNG send-out rising. Tuesday saw further spot and curve declines as storage withdrawals slowed and hedge-fund activity added downside pressure; EU storage stood near 40.5%. On Wednesday, gas prices rebounded despite lower Norwegian flows and reduced LNG send-out, while forecasts showed milder near-term temperatures.
Thursday brought mixed spot moves: Norwegian flows edged higher, EU storage fell to ~39%, and near-curve prices lifted amid intraday volatility; LNG remained Europe-focused as Asian supply tightened. By Friday, UK gas prices rose as the system opened short, Norwegian flows dipped due to Oseberg maintenance, and LNG send-out softened. Temperature forecasts turned more bearish for mid-February, supporting price upside. Geopolitics (Iran-US, Venezuela, Hormuz) and oil price swings added background risk throughout the period.