Energy Market Analysis – 05/01/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK power prices followed mixed patterns across the period, generally tracking gas market movements with limited liquidity during the holiday season. Weather forecasts played a crucial role, with the EC46 model indicating temperatures trending downward through early January, reaching their lowest point on 5th January before gradually recovering. This cold snap prompted forecasts of above-average LDZ demand until 12th January, with temperatures averaging around 1.73 degrees Celsius. Wind generation patterns varied significantly, with output initially below seasonal norms but forecast to strengthen substantially into the new year.
Germany was expected to produce nearly 50 GW of wind power on 1st–2nd January, whilst the UK anticipated average wind output of approximately 13 GW during the first week of January. EDF announced extensions of up to six days for two nuclear reactors—Belleville 2 and Golfech 2—now expected to return in early January. Carbon prices remained supported above €83/mtCO2e throughout December, bolstered by tight allowance supply and the approaching 1st January CBAM launch. EUA prices closed slightly higher on the final trading day of the year.
Gas
UK NBP gas prices demonstrated volatility throughout the period, with mixed movements driven by supply disruptions and weather patterns. A significant event was the unplanned outage at Norway’s Troll gas field following an external power supply failure, which initially curtailed 20–35 mcm/day and reduced Norwegian Shelf output by 42 mcm/day to 306 mcm/day. The issue subsequently subsided, with flows recovering to 334.1 mcm/day and then 344.9 mcm/day by 1st January. European LNG imports reached 48.58 BCM for the winter period, representing a 31.7% increase year-on-year.
Continental storage levels declined from 63.73% to 63.23% as withdrawals continued amid colder weather, with Dutch storage falling below 50% on 29th December. At current withdrawal rates, pan-European gas storages would deplete in approximately 112 days, though withdrawals typically ease as weather improves. The Asia-Pacific JKM LNG contract rose 0.6% to $9.707/MMBtu, driven by renewed South Korean demand following a cold snap. Limited liquidity during the holiday period contributed to price volatility, with fundamentals expected to normalise as market participation increases in the new year.