Energy Market Analysis – 15/12/2025
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload prices moved upwards early in the week alongside gas, though liquidity remained limited. Power prices stepped up on Thursday, tracking the gas market amid weaker wind generation in the UK (declining to 9.4GW) and Germany (7.3GW) before recovering over the weekend. Wind output was expected to remain largely above average in the coming weeks, limiting gas-fired generation requirements. However, the latest forecasts showed more variable conditions ahead, with some days requiring increased gas burn.
Day-ahead temperatures were running 6–6.5°C above seasonal norms initially, though the EC00 temperature run revised expectations lower from 19 December onwards, with the festive period trending below seasonal averages. Power prices showed marginal upward movements by Friday’s close, with limited trading activity.
Gas
UK NBP prices rose early in the week before easing mid-week, influenced by shifting supply dynamics and geopolitical developments. The system opened long on Monday (12 mcm/day) but turned short by Wednesday (9 mcm/day). Norwegian flows remained robust, aggregating 341.9–345.6 mcm/day, though Vesterled nominations eased Friday. LNG sendout fluctuated between 36–49 mcm/day, whilst MRS injections took advantage of warmer temperatures.
European spot prices defied expectations of ample supply, rising Tuesday following Russian strikes on Ukrainian gas infrastructure. Naftogaz secured a 5 billion Hryvnia loan for imports as reserves fell to 72.08%. Markets remained wary of geopolitical tensions, with Trump urging Ukrainian concessions and Zelensky suggesting sanctions relief could feature in peace negotiations. The EU confirmed a Russian gas import ban from early 2026.