Energy Market Analysis – 27/10/2025
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
Power prices generally tracked gas market movements throughout the week, opening lower on Monday before strengthening midweek and showing mixed signals by Friday. Liquidity remained limited across most sessions. Wind generation forecasts played a crucial role in price direction, with strong winds expected to peak on 25 October, supporting reductions in gas-fired generation and adding downward pressure to weekend prices.
UK wind output was forecast to average 15.4GW over the weekend. The relationship between NBP and TTF gas prices influenced the market, with the UK diverging from continental trends on Tuesday due to anticipated wind strength. Temperature forecasts drove demand expectations, with above-seasonal temperatures early in the week before cooling prompted increased consumption.
Cross-border flows responded accordingly, with IUK exports nominated at 19mcm/day as the TTF to NBP premium widened. Power curve prices remained supported by underlying gas market fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainties affecting the broader energy complex.
Gas
Throughout the week, UK NBP gas prices demonstrated volatility, opening lower on Monday before strengthening midweek and softening again by Friday. Demand patterns were closely tied to temperature fluctuations, with cooler weather driving increased consumption, particularly towards the week’s end. Norwegian supply remained a key focus, with total exit nominations fluctuating between 305-313mcm/day. Flows to the UK via Langeled varied significantly, reaching 70mcm/day early in the week before declining due to maintenance at facilities including Troll, Norne and Oseberg.
UK LNG sendout averaged around 40mcm/day, with four cargo arrivals scheduled over the fortnight to support winter supplies. Continental storage levels remained healthy at approximately 82.8% full. Geopolitical developments, including the EU’s announced ban on Russian LNG from 2027 and stalled US-Russia dialogue on Ukraine, provided upward price pressure across the curve. Asian LNG spot prices declined due to softening regional demand, whilst Qatar announced its North Field East expansion would commence in 2026.