Energy Market Analysis – 20/10/2025
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
Baseload power prices largely mirrored gas market movements, with mixed directional changes across the curve and limited liquidity throughout the week. Near-term prices edged lower initially before showing marginal gains, whilst the balance of season contracts posted some gains and the far curve positions experienced minor losses.
Wind generation forecasts remained weak, with only 3GW expected on 15th October, supporting continued gas-for-power demand.
EDF provided positive news by uplifting their nuclear output estimates to 365-375 TWh for the current year. However, supply constraints emerged as the IFA-1 interconnector tripped on 13th October, with 500 MW scheduled to remain unavailable until mid-January 2026, tightening supply lines for the UK, which is generally a net importer.
French nuclear maintenance extended at Belleville 2 (additional ten days) and Bugey 3 (additional eight days). Traders cited escalating attacks on Ukrainian generating assets and the accelerated Russian fuel phaseout as key drivers influencing European power markets during the period.
Gas
UK NBP prices showed varied movement throughout the week, generally trending lower in the near term whilst remaining range-bound further out. Norwegian flows fluctuated significantly, with exit nominations peaking at 324 mcm/day mid-week before dropping to 305 mcm/day by Friday, as maintenance affected key assets including Kollesnes, Troll, Oseberg, Norne, and Gullfaks. UK LNG supply remained robust, with sendout at approximately 41-43 mcm/day, particularly from Isle of Grain, helping to balance the system and limit price increases.
Four to five cargoes were expected in the near-term horizon. UKCS receipts averaged around 94-98 mcm/day, with Barrow offline until 27th October and Bacton Perenco experiencing curtailments. Geopolitical factors influenced the market, including ongoing attacks on Ukrainian gas infrastructure removing roughly 60% of production capacity, and the extension of strike action at French terminals until 15th October. European storage stood at 83.09% full as of 13th October, compared to 95.06% the previous year. The Asia-Pacific JKM benchmark fell to $10.618/MMBtu amid weak regional demand.