Understanding The Energy Markets Right Now - An Autumn 2026 Update
Autumn 2026 has been a difficult period for UK and European energy buyers. Gas prices have climbed to levels not seen since the 2022 crisis, driven by a combination of conflict in the Middle East, disrupted LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, heavy Norwegian maintenance and European storage running well below normal. Power prices have followed gas closely, with winter contracts carrying a significant premium over summer 2027. Prices have eased from their late-October peak, but the underlying risks that created the rally remain firmly in place heading into winter.
Energy market changes
Gas
Gas hit multi-year highs in late October, then pulled back in early November, but remains well above where autumn began.
- TTF Day-ahead: around €72/MWh on 1 September, €90.17 on 22 October (the first time above €90 since December 2022) and a peak of €97.10 on 27 October.
- UK NBP Day-ahead: 176.5p/th on 1 September, a high of 237.51p/th on 27 October, then back to around 214p/th by 10 November as LNG send-out rose and escalation fears eased.
- Curve shape: steeply backwardated, with Q1-27 at around 210 to 219p/th against Summer-27 at around 159 to 161p/th.
Power
UK power has followed gas all season, with the biggest premium in the nearest winter months.
- Late October peak: November baseload above £204/MWh, with Q1-27 around £200/MWh against Q2-27 at around £143/MWh.
- Early November: December baseload eased to £174/MWh and Cal-27 to £134.88/MWh as gas fell, but January was back near £185/MWh by 10 November.
- Why: UK wind output fell by around a fifth over a fortnight, gas-fired generation nearly doubled and net imports roughly halved.
Storage
EU storage reached 65.1% on 30 August and 72.7% on 4 October, but injections slowed as temperatures fell. The first net withdrawal of the winter came on 22 October, and storage has since hovered around 74 to 75%, against a five-year average of around 90% and roughly 8 to 10 percentage points below last year. Germany and the Netherlands were particularly low, at around 59% and 60% in early October. UK storage was only around 37% full at the end of October.
Geopolitical events affecting prices
US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz
The conflict between the US and Iran, now in its sixth month, has been the dominant price driver. Through September and October the market swung repeatedly between hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough and renewed escalation. Key events included strikes on shipping, Iranian attacks on US bases in the region, a strike on the Maran Gas LNG carrier near the Strait in early October and record numbers of attacks on commercial shipping in October. Hormuz LNG flows were reported at only around a quarter of pre-war levels at the end of October, and Qatari production restart delays continued to weigh on global supply.
Diplomatic efforts have been constant but fragile: an Iran-Oman framework for shipping lanes, Qatari mediation, discussions around the UN summit and, in early November, three consecutive days of Iran-Qatar talks. After the US midterms President Trump said further attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while talks continue, which weighed on prices. However, Democrats do not take control of Congress until 3 January, so the President retains considerable latitude until then.
Wider Middle East
Attacks on Saudi Arabia, including on a refinery, Houthi activity in the Red Sea and Gulf, and the suspension of output at Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field after a suspected drone attack have all added to the risk premium across the energy complex.
Russia and Ukraine
President Trump’s decision to waive sanctions and tariffs on Russia raised the prospect of additional Russian fuel exports and briefly pressured oil. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries since late October have reportedly cut Russian refining capacity by around 30%. A NATO official also warned that Europe must do more to address growing energy risks.
Oil
Brent traded above $100/bbl in September and early October and reached near six-month highs in late October. It has since fallen to two-month lows in early November, with signs that elevated prices are weighing on demand and the global oil market is moving back towards excess supply.
Other factors affecting prices
Norwegian supply
Norwegian flows have been the key physical swing factor. September saw one of the heaviest maintenance programmes of the year, with Nyhamna, Troll, Kollsnes and Sleipner outages pulling nominations as low as 226.1 mcm/day on 23 September. October was stronger, with nominations mostly between 320 and 342 mcm/day, although unplanned issues at Oseberg, Åsgard and Troll recurred. Nyhamna remains curtailed by 19.8 mcm/day until 26 November, and Visund (13.2 mcm/day) is offline until at least 16 November.
LNG supply and competition
European LNG imports have lagged last year’s pace. October send-out of around 410.5 mcm/day was roughly 14% below last year, and July imports were down around 29% year on year. Asian competition has kept JKM elevated, rising from around $26.9/MMBtu in early September to $32.7/MMBtu on 27 October. UK LNG send-out has increased sharply in November, reaching 52 to 70 mcm/day on recent cargo arrivals, and Norwegian flows to the UK have risen above 100 mcm/day, which has helped ease prompt tightness.
Weather and wind
Colder weather has been a growing driver since mid-October, with UK demand forecast at 268 to 288 mcm/day for 11 to 13 November. Wind output has been volatile and frequently below seasonal norms, directly increasing gas-for-power demand. UK wind was forecast at just 3.74 GW on 15 November in one recent run.
Continental power supply
French nuclear output was repeatedly constrained by heat-related outages and jellyfish ingress during the summer and early autumn, and low hydro availability and limited Nordic nuclear capacity (around half available at the end of October) have kept European power forwards at their highest levels in around three years.
Carbon
EU carbon held near €89/t at the end of October, while UK carbon was £66.80/t in early November. Higher gas and carbon costs have fed directly into power price formation, keeping gas the price-setting fuel.
Winter outlook
This outlook is a scenario-based assessment drawn from current market conditions. It is not a forecast guarantee, and Cibus Energy is not a financial advisor.
Base case: elevated and volatile
With EU storage around 16 points below its five-year average, Hormuz LNG flows still severely reduced and Norwegian availability under pressure until late November, the most likely outcome is a winter of elevated, headline-driven prices. NBP has recently traded in a range of roughly 210 to 240p/th at the prompt, and we expect the market to remain sensitive within and around that range. The steep backwardation should persist, with winter contracts at a large premium to Summer-27, which limits the incentive for storage injections and keeps concerns over spring storage levels alive.
Upside risk scenario
Prices could move meaningfully higher if a prolonged cold, low-wind spell coincides with Norwegian outages, with UK demand already forecast near 290 mcm/day in the coming days. Renewed escalation around Hormuz, further attacks on Gulf infrastructure or a prolonged absence of Qatari LNG would add to this. Faster-than-normal storage withdrawals would also raise the risk of tightness in late winter and a more expensive refill season in 2027. Power would be hit harder than gas in this scenario given thin margins, weak wind and constrained French and Nordic nuclear supply.
Downside risk scenario
A credible US-Iran agreement that reopens Hormuz to normal LNG traffic would remove a large share of the geopolitical premium, and the market has shown how quickly prices can fall on diplomatic progress. A mild winter, strong wind output and sustained high LNG send-out into Europe would also ease pressure. Even in this scenario, low storage means we would expect prices to find support well above pre-conflict levels.
Key dates and signals to watch
- 16 November: Visund expected back after outage (at least)
- 26 November: Nyhamna curtailment due to end
- 3 January: Democrats take control of Congress, which may constrain US options on Iran
- Ongoing: Iran-Qatar and wider US-Iran talks, Hormuz shipping crossings and LNG tanker transits
- Ongoing: EU storage withdrawal rates relative to the five-year average, and JKM-TTF spreads
- Ongoing: Weather model updates, wind forecasts and French nuclear availability
What this means for businesses
The curve structure matters as much as the headline price. The market is charging a heavy premium for winter and offering lower prices for summer 2027 and calendar 2027 delivery, so contract length, start date and purchasing approach can have a large effect on cost. Businesses with contracts expiring in the next six to twelve months should review their position now, avoid rolling onto out-of-contract rates, and consider flexible or phased purchasing rather than committing everything at current levels.