Energy Market Analysis – 31/08/2026
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Power
UK baseload tracked gas higher on Monday despite softer gas-for-power demand, which eased 9 mcm/day on the day-ahead as wind was expected to improve the following day. French nuclear constraints remained in focus, with heat-related outages forecast to rise to just under 7 GW on 25 August due to low river flows. Tuesday saw UK September baseload ease around 1.5% in line with softer gas, though Q4-26 and Winter-26 contracts remained historically elevated. French power rallied on extended nuclear maintenance, while German and Italian contracts softened alongside gas, leaving UK power sensitive to gas market direction as winter supply concerns grew. Wednesday saw the curve broadly follow gas lower on near-term contracts, with back-end contracts flat or firming slightly amid limited liquidity.
Renewable generation was expected to remain subdued, supporting gas-for-power demand modestly. Thursday brought a broad strengthening across the power curve, with French nuclear output falling to around 34 GW following further reactor outages — including disruptions caused by a jellyfish influx — and low hydro reserves adding to winter risk premiums. UK Winter-26 power rose to around €160.5/MWh. By Friday, baseload continued to edge higher alongside gas, with gas-for-power demand rising 3 mcm/day as wind eased and the temperature outlook revised cooler towards seasonal norms for the end of the following week.
Gas
UK NBP prices firmed on Monday as the system opened 24 mcm/day long, with Norwegian nominations recovering to 337.2 mcm/day despite Troll maintenance curtailing 24.4 mcm/day. UK-bound flows rose to 78 mcm/day from 58 mcm/day on Friday. Tuesday brought a pullback, with stronger Norwegian flows — reaching 343.8 mcm/day on 24 August before easing to 338.5 mcm/day — and robust LNG regasification nominations of around 240 mcm/day weighing on prompt prices. Gassco confirmed Troll capacity would increase to 132.2 mcm/day from 3 September. Despite softer spot prices, NBP Winter-26 closed at 165.35p/th, reflecting persistent concerns over EU storage at roughly 62% full. Wednesday saw front-season prices ease further as geopolitical risk premiums unwound, with IUK interconnector maintenance scheduled from 1 September expected to retain additional gas within the UK market.
Thursday reversed the trend, with NBP Day-Ahead gaining around 3.6% after an unplanned Åsgard compressor issue reduced output by 7.2 mcm/day. EU storage stood at approximately 63.5% full, well below year-ago levels, with TTF front-month trading near three-year highs. By Friday, prices firmed again as Norwegian nominations fell 15 mcm/day to 320 mcm/day following the start of Sleipner maintenance, scheduled to run until 22 September and expected to reduce flows by around 11 mcm/day.