Energy Market Analysis – 29/09/2025
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload prices generally followed gas market movements throughout the week, opening higher than previous closes across most sessions, though liquidity remained limited throughout. Day-ahead prices were particularly influenced by fluctuating wind generation forecasts and nuclear availability.
Spot UK base and peak prices showed mixed performance early in the week, with day-ahead contracts displaying weakness whilst weekend prices lifted.
Below-average wind power generation forecasts supported day-ahead prices, particularly towards the end of the week as wind speeds fell below normal levels. Gas for power demand forecasts initially increased before declining mid-week as wind generation improved.
Nuclear capacity developments played a significant role, with returning availability mid-week reducing gas for power demand by 11mcm/day. The Hartlepool 1 nuclear plant was expected to return to full capacity on 2nd October, bolstering overall output.
French export derating issues impacted export capabilities, providing additional support to UK prices. Throughout the curve, power prices tracked gas market movements closely, with support likely influenced by the gas curve and strengthening LNG fundamentals in the Asia-Pacific region affecting European competition for supply.
Gas
UK NBP prices generally trended higher throughout the week, opening stronger than previous closes across most sessions. The UK system fluctuated between oversupplied and undersupplied positions, influenced primarily by Norwegian flows, which varied between 278-301mcm/day as maintenance activities at Troll and other facilities eased. Gas for power demand forecasts were mixed, initially rising due to below-normal wind speeds before declining mid-week as wind generation improved and nuclear capacity returned.
LNG sendout remained consistently stable at 8mcm/day throughout the period. Mid-range storage activity shifted from withdrawals early in the week to injections by Friday. Exports to the continent continued as NBP maintained a discount to TTF.
Continental storage levels declined slightly from 81.60% to 79.86% full, with storage withdrawals reaching their highest level since June at 0.54TWh on 24th September.
European spot prices lifted by week’s end as colder forecasts drove higher demand, with UK demand on 24th September forecast 20mcm/day above seasonal normal. The EC46 temperature forecast showed below-seasonal norms early in the week before converging towards seasonal averages. Market fundamentals were influenced by strengthening Asia-Pacific LNG competition, geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, and potential typhoon disruption to Chinese LNG imports, though Asian sources reported robust storage and weak demand.