Energy Market Analysis – 16/03/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
The start of the week saw UK baseload power prices firming across the curve, mirroring the gas market and escalating Middle East tensions, although liquidity was a bit tight. Gas-for-power demand eased as wind generation started picking up again after a few days of low speeds. By Tuesday, however, UK Base and Peak power prices softened considerably, reflecting a bearish sentiment that swept across the market, with broad declines except for the weekend contract. This downturn was largely influenced by easing geopolitical fears and retreating oil prices.
Mid-week, power prices lifted again, tracking gas higher, particularly after reports of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The week closed with UK baseload firmer across the curve, despite limited liquidity, supported by the broader geopolitical backdrop and a cooler short-term weather outlook. Wind generation was expected to soften briefly but then recover strongly into the following week.
Gas
UK NBP spot prices and the forward curve initially rose on Monday due to heightened Middle East tensions. The UK gas system opened long, with gas-for-power demand easing as wind picked up. European natural gas spot prices then tumbled sharply on Tuesday as geopolitical fears around the Iran conflict seemed to abate, and near-term support weakened. Platts assessed the Dutch TTF day-ahead contract with a significant decline from Monday’s highs. This happened despite lower LNG regasification and Norwegian supply issues, with storage recording its first net injection of the year. However, this easing was short-lived.
By Wednesday, gas prices pushed higher through the curve, influenced by new reports of Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz. Norwegian output started rebounding after maintenance, and UK LNG send-out remained firm. European spot prices firmed again on Thursday, driven by persistent supply risks in the Middle East and a cooler short-term weather forecast, with UK gas demand projected to ease slightly but stay below seasonal norms. The week concluded with UK spot prices and front-of-the-curve contracts relatively flat, while the wider curve nudged slightly higher.