Energy Market Analysis – 16/02/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
Power prices largely tracked gas market movements throughout the week. Monday saw prices decline with limited liquidity, as wind generation was expected to fluctuate around seasonal normals. Gas-for-power demand was forecasted to fall initially.
Tuesday’s session showed power prices following the gas market’s downward trend throughout the curve, driven by weaker fundamentals and bearish sentiment.
Wednesday brought softer power prices despite rising gas prices, though liquidity remained limited. Day-ahead gas-for-power demand increased by 8mcm/day as forecasted wind speeds fell below seasonal levels.
Thursday saw front-curve power prices shed value whilst further-dated contracts posted minor gains. The carbon market showed continued bearishness, with Europe’s benchmark ETS contract trading near six-month lows following political discussions. UK carbon prices followed a similar bearish trend.
Friday showed front-curve baseload pricing flat, with marginal increases through the curve and limited liquidity. Forecasts indicated wind speeds would hold above normal at the start of the following week before trending back towards seasonal averages.
Gas
Natural gas prices showed mixed movement throughout the week. Prices initially fell on Monday amid robust UK LNG send-out of 111mcm/day and stable supply, despite forecasted temperature drops. Tuesday saw European spot prices edge lower as revised temperatures indicated above-average conditions across Northwest Europe, whilst Norwegian flows remained steady at 336–337mcm/day. European storage stood at 36.13% (412TWh) as of 9 February.
Wednesday brought higher prices across the curve, with the UK system 4mcm/day long. Norwegian flows reduced to 74mcm/day due to a planned Kårstø outage cutting capacity by 7.6mcm/day.
Thursday saw continental spot prices rise on reduced Norwegian flows and cooler forecasts, with unplanned Sleipner maintenance curtailing 6mcm/day. European stocks fell to 35.21% (402TWh).
Friday prices softened at the front of the curve. Gassco added a new Gullfaks outage (9mcm/day from 18–20 February), whilst the Sleipner outage continued. UK LNG send-out remained strong at 113mcm/day with sixteen cargoes expected, and temperatures were forecasted to remain below average until end-March.