Energy Market Analysis – 13/04/2026
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Power
UK power prices were heavily dictated by fluctuating renewable generation and broader gas market sentiment this week. Over Easter Sunday, a combination of seasonally weak holiday demand and robust wind output pushed UK power prices into deep negative territory.
As the week progressed, wind generation became highly variable. UK wind output fell sharply from roughly 40% on Tuesday to 22% on Wednesday. Consequently, UK Base and Peak prices initially lifted across the curve, tracking early bullish sentiment in gas markets, before falling on Wednesday in response to the US-Iran ceasefire announcement.
By Thursday, UK baseload prices moved higher again as forecasts indicated a further decline in wind. Heading into the weekend, wind generation is expected to drop sharply to very low levels compared to seasonal norms. This significant reduction in renewable output is anticipated to boost gas-for-power demand by approximately 28 mcm/day. Although wind conditions should improve slightly next week, overall output will likely remain below average, leaving UK baseload to open broadly sideways on Friday.
Gas
European gas spot prices experienced volatility this week. Initially, UK NBP day-ahead prices rose by 4.6% amidst geopolitical tensions concerning the Strait of Hormuz. However, the announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on Wednesday triggered a 15% drop in June crude futures, introducing strong bearish pressure across European gas curves. By Friday, the ceasefire showed signs of strain following alleged breaches and Israeli strikes into Lebanon, leaving curve prices mixed.
Fundamentally, the UK system remained comfortably supplied. Robust LNG deliveries consistently exceeded the monthly average, compensating for fluctuations in Norwegian flows, which dipped mid-week due to annual maintenance at the Troll field. Despite steady UK Continental Shelf receipts and EU storage injections early in the week, shifting weather patterns heavily influenced demand. Initially above seasonal norms, temperatures began to cool, driving up expected UK gas demand. Consequently, NBP spot prices edged higher by Thursday before softening slightly on Friday morning as the system opened 10 mcm/day long.