Energy Market Analysis – 08/09/2025
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK and European power prices moved lower early in the week, driven by mild weather, robust wind, and strong hydro output. By Thursday and Friday, prices lifted in line with firmer gas markets.
Wind output has been strong across the UK and Germany, reducing gas burn for generation in the near term. UK forecasts show stronger winds into early next week.
- Nuclear developments included EDF restarting Cattenom-3 in France and easing restrictions at Chooz. Several more French reactors are due online in coming months. In the UK, Hartlepool and Heysham 1 (2.3 GW combined) have secured one-year life extensions, helping ease reliance on gas through to 2028.
French nuclear reliability remained a factor: jellyfish swarms forced the 1.3 GW Paluel-4 reactor offline briefly on Thursday, though this was partly offset by Tricastin-2 coming online.
UK power prices opened higher on Friday, though liquidity was thin.
Gas
Temperatures are expected to stay above seasonal norms until mid-October, keeping demand subdued. UK demand continues to sit below averages, with forecasts of ~131 mcm/day versus a seasonal norm of ~150 mcm/day.
Norwegian flows remain reduced due to maintenance. Exit nominations fell to 235 mcm/day early in the week and are expected to remain more than 100 mcm/day below capacity until 19 September, peaking at 132 mcm/day offline on 11 September. By Thursday and Friday, nominations had recovered slightly, reaching 244–246 mcm/day.
UK LNG send-out has been steady at low levels (~7 mcm/day), with South Hook and Isle of Grain active but Dragon quiet. No new LNG cargoes are expected imminently into the UK, though Europe is seeing stronger LNG inflows and regasification.
Storage injections across Europe are ongoing, though inventories (78.1% on 1 September) lag last year’s level by more than 14 percentage points. Exports to the continent continue as the NBP trades at a discount.
On Wednesday, gas-for-power demand rose briefly (+11 mcm/day) before forecasts of stronger wind drove expectations lower for the weekend and following week.
Wider market developments include Gazprom and CNPC signing a binding agreement on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to deliver 50 bcm/year to China. Crude oil price strength lent some support early in the week, but by Friday prices fell on supply-glut fears and rising US inventories.