Energy Market Analysis – 11/08/2025
Welcome to the new Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
European power markets saw mixed movements over the week, largely tracking fluctuations in gas prices and weather-driven demand. Early gains in front-month contracts were driven by cooler temperatures, reduced renewable output in Germany, and French nuclear concerns amid rising heatwaves.
France’s September contract traded at a rare premium to October, supported by nuclear unavailability and higher cooling demand. Mid-week, prices edged higher despite limited liquidity, before falling on 7 August in line with weaker gas markets, with Spain posting the steepest drop (-1.6%) and France down 1.2% but still 19% above its July average.
Germany was the exception, posting small gains and narrowing its premium to Italy. Renewables also played a role, with wind generation above norms early in the week but forecast to drop below seasonal levels heading into the weekend.
Closing Price (08/08/25) - £37.79/MWh
Gas
UK and European gas prices fluctuated within a narrow range, influenced by stable Norwegian flows, LNG sendout, and shifting gas-for-power demand. Prices firmed early in the week amid cooler weather and moderate demand increases, before easing mid-week on higher Norwegian supply, reaching the highest daily flows since December 2024.
Gas-for-power demand varied, rising on lower wind output at the start and end of the week, but falling mid-week as wind picked up. LNG imports remained low, with South Hook the main contributor. Fundamentals stayed comfortable, but geopolitical tensions resurfaced, with the US–Russia ceasefire deadline and oil tariff risks adding uncertainty.