Energy Market Analysis – 30/10/2026
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Power
UK baseload tracked gas higher on Monday, with gas-for-power demand forecast to fall 16 mcm/day on warmer conditions and stable wind speeds, although winds were expected to ease later in the week. Tuesday saw UK power contracts move lower across the curve, tracking weakness in NBP and reinforcing the softer tone across forward energy markets. Wednesday brought a reversal, with baseload firming alongside gas despite thin liquidity. Low wind speeds pushed gas-for-power demand up to around 22 mcm/day, while the EC46 forecast showed temperatures declining through the week and falling below seasonal norms from the following week. Thursday saw UK Day-Ahead baseload fall, with the forward curve also softening. Year-ahead baseload slipped roughly 0.8% to around €177/MWh, while EU carbon held near €89/t.
Power remains driven by winter supply adequacy, storage levels, Norwegian availability and the wider geopolitical backdrop. By Friday, baseload tracked gas higher, although liquidity remained limited. Gas-for-power demand was expected to ease by 8 mcm/day as wind forecasts were revised slightly higher for the weekend, though still below seasonal norms. Temperatures were forecast to fluctuate around seasonal normal levels.
Gas
UK NBP prices moved higher on Monday as the system opened around 11 mcm/day long. Norwegian nominations were 323.9 mcm/day, with unplanned maintenance at Sleipner, Oseberg and Åsgard curtailing 18.3 mcm/day. UK-bound flows rose to around 80 mcm/day and LNG sendout increased to 18 mcm/day. Record attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping kept geopolitical risk elevated. Tuesday was mixed, with TTF Day-Ahead down 0.7% to €97.10/MWh and NBP up 0.1% to 237.51p/th. Outages removed around 35 mcm/day of Norwegian supply, yet nominations held at 320.8 mcm/day. Colder forecasts lifted UK demand expectations by 11.7% to 169 mcm/day, while strong LNG arrivals limited the upside. Wednesday saw prices strengthen again, with the system 9 mcm/day long and Norwegian nominations rising to 330.1 mcm/day.
Four LNG cargoes were scheduled for the UK over the next fortnight. On Thursday, prices eased as supply responded to recent highs, with Norwegian output at 336.1 mcm/day and 86.1 mcm/day heading to the UK. Nyhamna remains curtailed by 19.8 mcm/day until 26 November. UK storage is only around 37% full, and Hormuz LNG flows remain at roughly a quarter of pre-war levels. The curve is steeply backwardated, with January near 244p/th against Summer-27 at around 177p/th. By Friday, prices had firmed again, with Norwegian nominations at 341.9 mcm/day and UK flows at 95 mcm/day.