Energy Market Analysis – 09/10/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
Power markets tracked gas broadly higher at the start of the week, with cooling temperatures and weakening renewable output providing underlying support. Monday’s session set a firm tone ahead of the week’s geopolitical developments, with limited liquidity a consistent feature across the curve. Tuesday saw the power curve follow gas sharply higher, with the LNG carrier attack near the Strait of Hormuz embedding a fresh geopolitical premium across contracts. Wind generation was expected to ease as the week progressed, supporting gas-for-power demand. Wednesday brought continued gains, with UK baseload tracking the gas market higher despite the system opening well supplied at 11 mcm/day long. Gas-for-power demand fell to around 20 mcm/day as wind generation remained above seasonal norms and was expected to stay elevated through the weekend.
Temperatures were forecast to fall below seasonal normal levels from Wednesday onwards, gradually shifting the demand picture. Thursday saw European forward power prices surge to their highest levels in three years, driven by tight hydro availability and constrained nuclear supply across the continent, compounding the support already coming from elevated gas prices. The UK power curve followed the broader European trend higher. By Friday, the system remained comfortable with healthy wind generation expected to persist before easing into the following week, keeping near-term gas-for-power demand broadly unchanged. Oil prices easing on diplomatic progress provided a slight softening influence at the front of the curve.
Gas
Monday saw gas prices firm ahead of the week’s developments, with the market supported by cooling temperatures and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Norwegian nominations were broadly in line with recent sessions, though outages continued to constrain network capacity. LNG sendout provided modest support, while EU storage — estimated at around 72–73% full heading into the week — continued to lag well below year-ago levels, keeping the curve sensitive to supply disruptions. Tuesday brought a sharp move higher, with TTF Day-Ahead rising to €75.20/MWh as a strike on the Maran Gas LNG carrier near the Strait of Hormuz rattled markets. Shipping crossings through the Strait fell to 22 on 5 October, from 26 the previous day. Norwegian flows remained robust at 329.3 mcm/day despite outages of 25–31 mcm/day, while LNG sendout stood at 291.9 mcm/day. EU storage stood at 72.7% full as of 4 October, approximately 9.9 percentage points below year-ago levels, with German and Dutch stocks particularly low at around 59% and 60% respectively.
Wednesday saw further gains, with the system opening 11 mcm/day long and Norwegian nominations rising to 334.4 mcm/day despite an ongoing Heidrun curtailment of 5.8 mcm/day. Thursday brought a more mixed picture, with TTF edging marginally lower to €79/MWh despite tighter fundamentals, as European LNG regasification sendout fell sharply to 200 mcm/day — down around 250 mcm/day — and Norwegian nominations eased to 328.2 mcm/day following extended Dvalin and Heidrun outages. Asian LNG strengthened, with November JKM rising around 3.6% to $26.697/MMBtu, intensifying competition for flexible cargoes. By Friday, the system opened 13 mcm/day long, with Norwegian nominations at 327.3 mcm/day as Dvalin maintenance continued. Oil prices eased after President Trump signalled the US would not strike Iran before the midterm elections, with diplomatic discussions raising hopes of reduced disruption to global energy flows.