Energy Market Analysis – 28/09/2026
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Power
UK baseload was largely directionless on Monday amid extremely thin liquidity, though prices firmed where visible. Gas-for-power demand rose 16 mcm/day run-on-run as wind generation eased, with output expected to remain below seasonal norms through much of the week before recovering late in the period. Tuesday saw power prices post gains by the close of session, broadly tracking the late gas rally. The session was characterised by significant intraday volatility as geopolitical headlines dominated sentiment. Wind generation remained relatively healthy, and strong LNG arrivals into Europe provided some bearish offset to near-term supply concerns. Wednesday saw baseload strengthen further alongside gas, with gas-for-power demand easing a further 6 mcm/day as wind speeds continued to improve, though generation remained below seasonal norms. The system opened 17 mcm/day long.
Limited liquidity continued to restrict price discovery further along the curve. By Thursday, power prices were finding broader support as Norwegian supply disruptions in gas markets kept the curve elevated, with French nuclear availability also a watchpoint following recent heat-related constraints. Heading into Friday, gas-for-power demand was expected to remain a key driver as wind generation recovery from its mid-week lows remained gradual. The power curve retained a premium on winter contracts, reflecting sustained concern over gas supply adequacy and storage levels ahead of the 2026/27 heating season.
Gas
UK NBP spot prices softened on Monday as the system opened 11 mcm/day long. Norwegian nominations stood at 271.7 mcm/day, with Troll’s compressor failure compounded by an unplanned Sleipner outage curtailing a further 10.5 mcm/day. LNG sendout rose to 13 mcm/day with two Isle of Grain arrivals scheduled. Tuesday brought a volatile session, with TTF Day-Ahead eventually closing higher at €74.40/MWh despite broadly bearish intraday sentiment. Norwegian exports fell to 264.4 mcm/day, with maintenance curtailments set to peak on 23 September at 145.8 mcm/day. European LNG sendout reached 294.1 mcm/day, above the month-to-date average, with strong regasification in France and Italy. UN summit discussions offered little progress on Middle East peace. Wednesday saw Norwegian nominations fall sharply to 226.1 mcm/day following additional outages at Kårstø, Åsgard and Skarv, removing around 140 mcm/day of supply.
Most maintenance was expected to conclude the following day, though Troll’s compressor failure continued to restrict capacity. LNG sendout eased 4 mcm/day to 13 mcm/day. By Thursday, Norwegian nominations were recovering as the bulk of scheduled maintenance concluded, though Troll restrictions persisted. EU storage continued to lag well below year-ago levels, keeping winter risk premiums supported across the curve. By Friday, the market remained sensitive to any further supply disruptions, with geopolitical uncertainty and storage concerns continuing to underpin forward contracts heading into the final week of September.