Energy Market Analysis – 21/09/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
UK baseload tracked gas higher at the start of the week, though liquidity remained consistently thin. Gas-for-power demand was set to ease 5 mcm/day on Monday as wind speeds were expected to increase, with generation forecast to remain mostly above seasonal norms through the week. Temperatures were easing back towards seasonal normal levels. Tuesday saw power prices step down across the curve in line with falling gas, as UK wind generation was forecast to decline almost 30% to just above 8 GW on 16 September, though this provided limited support against broader bearish sentiment. Wednesday brought a divergence, with the front of curve softening while back-end baseload contracts strengthened.
The system opened 17 mcm/day long, with gas-for-power demand easing sharply by 12 mcm/day. Despite sharp Norwegian supply disruptions in gas markets, power prices found limited upward traction. Thursday saw the power curve soften broadly in line with gas, with LNG regasification across European terminals rising to around 540 mcm/day, easing supply concerns. Wind generation in the UK was forecast to average around 17 GW on 18 September. By Friday, baseload tracked gas higher as wind generation was forecast to decline sharply over the weekend, pushing gas-for-power demand significantly higher. French nuclear availability fell again as temperatures began to rise, tightening regional supply.
Gas
UK NBP prices continued to strengthen on Monday, with the system opening 11 mcm/day long. Norwegian nominations fell to 288 mcm/day amid heavy maintenance, with an unplanned Ormen Lange outage reducing flows by around 15 mcm/day. Diplomatic setbacks in the Middle East and continued attacks on oil transit routes kept oil prices firm. Tuesday brought a pullback, with TTF Day-Ahead easing around 3.6% to €81.18/MWh and NBP settling near 198.60p/th as Norwegian flows recovered to 300 mcm/day, with UK-bound deliveries rising around 9% to 48.5 mcm/day. Cooler temperature forecasts and partial unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums weighed on the curve.
Wednesday saw significant supply disruption, with Nyhamna losing 38.8 mcm/day of capacity and an unplanned Troll outage curtailing a further 25 mcm/day, pushing Norwegian nominations down to 280.9 mcm/day. UK-bound flows fell sharply to 33 mcm/day. Thursday brought broader European declines, with TTF easing to €76.95/MWh, though NBP diverged higher to around 191.30p/th. Norwegian flows fell further to 259 mcm/day as Troll curtailments reached 46 mcm/day. EU storage reached 68.66% full as of 15 September. By Friday, prices firmed again, with Norwegian nominations at 267.2 mcm/day as Troll’s unplanned maintenance was extended through 25 September, increasing curtailments to 46.2 mcm/day, partially offset by Kollsnes returning around 16 mcm/day.