Energy Market Analysis – 10/08/2026
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Power
UK baseload tracked gas higher at the start of the week amid a developing heatwave, with temperatures forecast to peak on Wednesday and Thursday. Gas-for-power demand was expected to ease 13 mcm/day on Monday’s day-ahead as wind generation remained below seasonal norms. French nuclear constraints added regional tightness, with heat-related outages a persistent feature. Tuesday saw UK prompt power strengthen, with Day-Ahead baseload rising around £10/MWh, even as forward contracts eased in line with softer gas. EU storage concerns and hotter weather continued to underpin near-term gas-for-power demand across the continent. Wednesday brought a sharp increase in gas-for-power demand of 13 mcm/day as wind speeds fell further below seasonal norms.
French nuclear outages were expected to peak on Thursday at around 10.7 GW, compounded by a significant jellyfish influx causing additional reactor shutdowns. The system opened 16 mcm/day long. Thursday saw UK prompt prices ease slightly despite firmer gas, though forward contracts remained well supported by ongoing French nuclear constraints and elevated gas prices. The UK curve retained a pronounced backwardation, with Winter-26 at a significant premium to Summer-27 and Winter-27. By Friday, UK baseload edged higher alongside gas, with French nuclear disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty continuing to support the wider power complex despite temperatures beginning to ease.
Gas
UK NBP prices firmed on Monday as Iran signalled it was nearing a Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman, though conditions attached by Tehran kept uncertainty elevated. The system opened 6 mcm/day long, with Norwegian nominations at 313.3 mcm/day amid corrective maintenance at Dvalin. Tuesday brought a pullback following the previous session’s rally, though near-curve strength persisted. Norwegian nominations recovered to 317.4 mcm/day, while European LNG imports averaged around 343 mcm/day in August — roughly 17% above July levels. Despite this, EU storage stood at just 59.12% full, approximately 12 percentage points below year-ago levels, with Germany and the Netherlands particularly underfilled.
Wednesday saw prices firm again as Norwegian nominations rose to 325.5 mcm/day and Langeled flows increased to 52 mcm/day, though geopolitical confidence faded following fresh shipping attacks by US forces and the Houthis. Thursday brought further gains, with NBP Day-Ahead rising around 1% to just below 150p/th after an unplanned outage at Kollsnes reduced capacity from 156 to 145.2 mcm/day. EU storage reached roughly 60% full, still around 12 percentage points below last year. By Friday, prices continued higher, supported by geopolitical uncertainty and a US threat of an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, with Norwegian exports to the UK rising to 63 mcm/day.