Energy Market Analysis – 10/08/2026
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Power
UK baseload strengthened on Monday despite softer gas prices, with elevated wind and solar generation weighing on gas-for-power demand, which was forecast to fall 7 mcm/day. Wind was expected to peak on Wednesday before easing below seasonal norms, with temperatures also forecast to drop sharply ahead of the weekend. Tuesday saw power prices ease across the curve in line with gas, with spot prices falling to monthly lows amid strong wind forecasts. UK wind load factors were expected to decline from around 47% on 5 August to 31% on 6 August. Wednesday saw baseload firm despite softer spot gas, with gas-for-power demand surging 16 mcm/day day-on-day as wind speeds began to ease.
Wind output was generally expected to remain below seasonal norms over the coming weeks. Thursday brought further upward pressure, with German and UK wind output forecast to fall around 25% on 7 August to 6.2 GW and 8.2 GW respectively. An approaching European heatwave for week 33, with temperatures forecast around 2°C above seasonal norms, propelled near-term UK power prices higher, with the curve also lifting in line with gas. By Friday, baseload continued to track gas upward as wind speeds were forecast to fall further below seasonal norms and gas-for-power demand rose 11 mcm/day.
Gas
UK NBP prices softened on Monday as both commodities rolled into the September front-month contract, with the system opening 13 mcm/day long. Norwegian nominations stood at 326.9 mcm/day, while hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz weighed on oil and gas prices. Tuesday extended the decline, with TTF Day-Ahead falling around 3.7% to €55.47/MWh after reports that a Hormuz agreement could be imminent. EU storage stood at approximately 57.66% full, around 12 percentage points below year-ago levels, while European LNG imports in July totalled roughly 8.8 bcm — down around 29% year-on-year. Wednesday saw spot prices soften further, with Norwegian nominations declining to 319.3 mcm/day as Vesterled and Langeled both nominated lower volumes.
Thursday brought a reversal, with prices rallying as Norwegian flows fell further to 316.3 mcm/day and an additional 6 mcm/day curtailment was announced at Åsgard for the following day. LNG sendout to Europe rose sharply to around 400 mcm/day, though storage at nearly 58% full remained well below seasonal norms. By Friday, prices continued to firm, with Norwegian nominations falling further to 312.2 mcm/day due to the unplanned Åsgard outage and a delayed Kårstø restart. Strait of Hormuz vessel movements dropped to 33 for the week, compared with 50 the previous week.