Energy Market Analysis – 26/05/2026
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
Throughout the week, UK baseload power prices generally trended higher, largely tracking the volatility in the gas market. Liquidity remained consistently limited across most sessions. Early in the week, prices firmed despite strengthening wind speeds, which initially suppressed gas-for-power demand. However, by mid-week, a forecast reduction in wind generation began to support the market, with gas-for-power demand increasing as renewable output fluctuated.
By Friday, although wind generation remained above seasonal norms, it was expected to weaken over the weekend. Exceptionally strong solar output provided a counterbalance as the UK entered a period of unseasonably high temperatures.
Demand was significantly influenced by this weather shift, with temperatures rising up to six degrees above seasonal norms, thereby increasing cooling requirements. While power prices followed the upward trajectory of gas on Thursday, they turned mixed by Friday’s close. Throughout the week, the market remained sensitive to the interplay between intermittent renewable supply and the thermal demand brought on by the May heatwave. On the curve, while near-term prices showed strength, longer-dated contracts such as Summer 2027 saw marginal decreases.
Gas
UK NBP prices experienced notable fluctuations, driven by a combination of supply disruptions and shifting weather patterns. Early in the week, prices firmed due to tightening fundamentals, including unplanned outages at the Åsgard field and scheduled maintenance at Troll and Kollsnes. These factors culminated on Wednesday, with Norwegian nominations hitting a yearly low of 170.3 mcm/day. Supply was further constrained by reduced Langeled flows and lower LNG send-out.
As the week progressed, a continent-wide heatwave with temperatures exceeding 30°C spurred cooling demand, which slowed the pace of storage injections.
EU storage levels remained a focal point for the market, recorded at only 36.6% full, which reinforced concerns regarding the winter refill pace. Geopolitical tensions also weighed on the energy complex; oil prices strengthened following reports of attacks in the UAE and stalled peace negotiations between the US and Iran. By Friday, NBP spot prices and the front of the curve softened as Kollsnes maintenance concluded and Norwegian flows recovered to 267 mcm/day. However, the back-end of the curve remained firm, reflecting ongoing uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern stability and global LNG supply dynamics.