Energy Market Analysis – 30/03/2026
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Power
Over the week of 23–27 March, UK wholesale power prices broadly mirrored movements in the gas market, constrained throughout by generally shallow liquidity. At the start of the period, baseload and peak power contracts rallied on Monday as cooler-than-normal weather forecasts lifted gas prices, even though wind output was already strong enough to restrain marginal demand for gas-fired generation. By mid-week, however, abundant wind and intermittent signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict prompted a notable softening in the front months of the forward curve. Day-ahead power requirements dipped as wind feed-in reached multi-year highs, pushing gas-for-power burn down to around 15 mcm/day on Tuesday and slightly higher on Wednesday despite a modest drop in wind speeds.
Overnight and seasonal contracts remained mixed, reflecting ongoing uncertainty over weather and geopolitical risks. Towards the end of the week, a fresh spell of colder-than-average temperatures across north-west Europe and a sharp fall in onshore wind—Germany’s baseload wind factor plunged from 42 per cent to 17 per cent on 27 March—reversed the mid-week lull. Power curves once again climbed, with front-season and winter blocks registering gains as market participants priced in higher gas-for-power demand and sustained levels of import dependency.
Gas
UK gas markets saw spot and forward curves firm at the outset of the week, with National Balancing Point (NBP) day-ahead rates rising on Monday 23 March amid forecasts of cooler weather and a system opening some 26 mcm/day long. Although plentiful wind generation subdued gas-for-power burn to roughly 15 mcm/day, prices were underpinned by reduced temperatures and elevated geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, which drove oil—and by extension gas—markets higher. On Tuesday and into Wednesday, however, a combination of milder near-term weather projections, healthy Norwegian exports (rising from around 72 mcm/day to 319 mcm/day via Langeled and Vesterled), steady UK LNG send-out and small storage injections across Europe exerted downward pressure on the curve.
NBP spot values fell sharply on Wednesday as tentative signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict weakened risk premia, even though wind generation was easing. By Thursday and Friday, a renewed chill across Europe, lower renewable output and the lowest seasonal storage levels since 2022 prompted a rebound in prices. Norwegian exit nominations climbed to approximately 338 mcm/day by Friday, while UK-bound LNG send-out remained stable. Nonetheless, persistent political friction—most notably US-Iran exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz—continued to inject volatility into the gas complex.