Energy Market Analysis – 23/02/2026
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Power
Wind generation significantly influenced UK power markets throughout the week. Wind output was forecast to rise sharply from 14-16 February, with German output doubling to 23.3 GWh/h and UK output increasing to 13.1 GWh/h. Weaker wind on certain days pushed gas-for-power demand up by 25 mcm/day to 78 mcm/day, though weekend and following-week demand were set to fall to 37 mcm/day and 55 mcm/day respectively, as wind speeds rebounded.
UK baseload power prices fell early week but remained mixed by Friday, with spot prices marginally higher across most contracts. European and UK power prices softened mid-week as steep carbon market losses weighed on forward contracts, though spot prices diverged sharply across regions—from weakness in Iberia to notable spikes in the Nordics. German grid restrictions at Montoir reduced French flows with minimum sendout capacities of 215 GWh/d weekends and 235 GWh/d weekdays through 31 March.
Gas
UK NBP gas prices fell early in the week across front and mid-curve contracts, despite forecasts of colder temperatures 16-20 February. Total exit nominations averaged 330.5 mcm/day, with an unplanned compressor failure at Ormen Lange curtailing 5.3 mcm/day. UKCS receipts declined 3 mcm/day, while IUK exports remained at 14 mcm/day. UK LNG deliveries were stable at 98 mcm/day (13% of Europe’s 730 mcm/day intake). Norwegian flows held at 332 mcm/day early week but fell to 318 mcm/day by Friday following maintenance at Oseberg, reducing output by 7.7 mcm/day.
By mid-week, European gas strengthened as traders covered shorts ahead of colder weather across Central and Eastern Europe. TTF month-ahead jumped 6% and UK NBP rose 6.75% amid geopolitical tensions over US-Iran relations, though prices eased after diplomatic signals improved. EU storage withdrawals remained firm at 525 mcm/day, leaving inventories 32.5% full with reserves lasting approximately 10 weeks. EU carbon prices hit their lowest since July 2025, pressuring forward curves, while Italian regulatory uncertainty added volatility.