Energy Market Analysis – 10/11/2025
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Power
UK baseload prices broadly mirrored gas market movements, opening higher on Monday before declining mid-week and stabilising on Friday.
Gas-for-power demand increased significantly, reaching 60mcm/day by Wednesday (up 24mcm/day), driven by plummeting wind generation, which continued underperforming forecasts throughout the week. Nuclear availability decreased due to maintenance at the Torness plant, further supporting demand.
The persistently low wind generation across the UK and Europe continued to be the key driver for increased gas-fired generation requirements. Power prices across both spot and curve contracts followed the trajectory of the gas market, responding to the same fundamental factors, including warm temperatures, weak wind output, and stable Norwegian supply.
The warmer-than-average conditions slightly extended beyond initial forecasts, contributing to the bearish pressure on curve prices. EU ministers agreed a draft target to cut carbon emissions by 90% by 2040, working towards net zero by 2050, whilst the European Commission reported being on track for 2030 climate targets.
Gas
UK NBP prices experienced volatility throughout the week, opening higher on Monday before declining from Wednesday onwards. Gas-for-power demand remained bullish due to persistently weak wind generation across the UK and Europe, with forecasts suggesting continued underperformance through the week. LNG send-out fluctuated between 27-50mcm/day, with eight cargoes expected initially, though this reduced to six by mid-week. Norwegian supply remained robust at approximately 330mcm/day with no unplanned outages.
Storage levels stood at 82.97-83.02%, below the 5-year average and 12% lower year-on-year, as the market entered withdrawal season with minimal injections occurring. Temperatures remained approximately 3.5°C above the seasonal norm, particularly in London, with warmer weather extending beyond initial forecasts until Week 47. Asian LNG demand increased 8% week-on-week as the procurement season commenced. Dutch TTF prices generally followed NBP movements, whilst rising carbon prices (reaching a nine-month high) and fundamental shifts influenced curve prices across all contracts.