Energy Market Analysis – 03/11/2025
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Power
UK baseload prices increased slightly across the curve on Tuesday, with only summer-28 showing a minor decrease. These upward movements were linked to rising gas prices, a 500 MW outage on the IFA power connector between France and the UK (offline until mid-January), and weak gas storage levels in the UK. On Wednesday, UK baseload followed gas trends higher with limited liquidity.
Gas-for-power demand was below forecasts and expected to remain lower for the following week due to solid renewable generation, with strong wind generation forecast until 11 November before falling to normal levels. On Thursday, power prices throughout the curve followed the gas market’s downward trend.
The UK day-ahead baseload power price declined amid higher projected wind generation. On Friday, UK baseload prices stepped up through the curve with limited liquidity, despite softer gas-for-power demand and strong winds in the near term and for the coming weeks.
Gas
On Monday, NBP prices fell across the curve as UK baseload also edged lower. The UK system opened marginally long despite lower Norwegian flows due to Langeled being redirected to the continent and an extended Oseberg outage. On Tuesday, UK NBP spot prices rose incrementally despite mixed Eurogas performance and rising temperatures in certain countries. Norwegian production improved to 328 mcm/day, whilst Category 5 Hurricane Melissa travelling through key US LNG export shipping routes caused marginal upward curve movements due to potential European supply disruptions.
On Wednesday, UK NBP prices opened slightly higher across the curve with limited liquidity. Norwegian exit nominations decreased dramatically to 288.7 mcm/day from 326 mcm/day due to Troll planned maintenance, reducing UK flows by 24 mcm/day. On Thursday, UK and European spot prices declined amid milder weather, higher winds, and reduced Norwegian curtailments to just 19.5 mcm/day. On Friday, UK NBP prices climbed for the front month contract, though remained relatively flat through the curve.