Energy Market Analysis – 13/10/2025
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Power
UK power prices gained support on Monday despite limited liquidity. Gas demand for electricity generation was rising significantly as storm-driven high winds subsided, with wind speeds forecast to drop below average from 8 October until at least 20 October. Nuclear output remained steady at 2.5 GW but was expected to climb over the forthcoming fortnight as scheduled maintenance concluded.
Tuesday saw UK base and peak lift on the spot whilst curve prices mostly softened. Wednesday’s baseload prices followed a similar suppressed trend to gas, with limited liquidity.
UK nuclear capacity was expected to increase from that day, reaching nearly 5 GW by 17 October after maintenance had taken over half the fleet offline. The latest EC46 forecast indicated temperatures above seasonal averages in the coming days before decreasing below seasonal norms from 14 October onwards.
Thursday witnessed UK power prices declining throughout the curve, mirroring the gas market. Day-ahead wind power generation was expected to fall just above 3 GW, whilst gas demand was forecast to reach 175 mcm/day.
Great Britain’s electricity system operator anticipated operational margins reaching their highest levels in six years this winter, bolstered by the Greenlink interconnector, new battery storage, and higher gas power station availability. Friday saw base prices mixed and slightly increased further out, though liquidity remained limited.
Gas
UK NBP prices rose significantly on Monday, supported by intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure targeting domestic production. Ukraine secured long-term loans from the European Investment Bank to fund potential increased winter imports as damage assessment continues. Total Norwegian exit nominations remained robust at 316.2 mcm/day, with Langeled flows at 68 mcm/day. Whilst the Norwegian Continental Shelf should maintain adequate European and UK supply with limited planned maintenance, unplanned disruptions remain a winter risk.
European gas prices showed mixed movements on Tuesday, with UK NBP rising despite milder weather forecasts. Unplanned maintenance at the Troll gas field extended by one day due to process problems, with uncertain duration.
Temperatures across Northwest Europe were expected 1-2°C above seasonal norms, potentially limiting demand. Storage stood at 82.88% as of 5 October. Analysts suggested Ukraine might require an additional 2.1-4.1 bcm of imports beyond previous forecasts.
Wednesday saw UK NBP prices slightly suppressed across the front and mid-curve. Langeled flows increased to 68 mcm/day, with total exit nominations at 316.6 mcm/day. LNG sendout reached 16 mcm/day, with two cargoes scheduled. Ukrainian officials indicated supply facilities suffered substantial damage, potentially requiring 30% increased imports. Thursday brought falling spot prices amid milder weather forecasts and improving Middle Eastern geopolitical sentiment. Egyptian LNG cargo deferrals were reported, with up to 20 cargoes potentially deferred. Friday saw marginal NBP price declines, with Norwegian imports up 4 mcm/day and LNG sendout lifting to 18 mcm/day.