Energy Market Analysis – 06/10/2025
Welcome to the Cibus Energy market analysis, detailing last week’s price changes, supply news, and movements in the electricity, gas, and oil markets. If you’d like to receive our energy market analysis directly to your inbox every Monday, then fill out this contact form to subscribe.
Power
Power prices followed gas market trends throughout the week, with limited liquidity observed at times. UK baseload spot prices fell mid-week, influenced by stronger anticipated wind generation from Storm Amy, though curve prices bucked this trend with some repositioning. On Friday, baseload prices lifted despite lower gas prices.
Wind generation proved a key driver, falling over the weekend of 29th September before improving from Thursday onwards. Higher-than-usual generation was expected from Thursday through Monday.
Nuclear output was at its lowest point for 2025 early in the week, with scheduled increases commencing a day earlier than planned.
A significant milestone occurred on Tuesday when European spot power markets successfully introduced 15-minute market time units for coupled day-ahead auctions. For the first time, results for all 96 quarter-hour periods were published, with prices and volumes reflecting prevailing conditions across the 11-country market area (excluding Great Britain and Switzerland).
Weather forecasts showed temperatures slightly below to above normal initially, with updated forecasts confirming milder conditions for the following week, before a temperature dip from 11-23 October.
Gas
UK NBP prices opened softer on Monday and continued declining throughout the week, particularly on the spot market. Thursday saw prices tumble amid strong wind generation and steady Norwegian supply, despite unplanned compressor failures curtailing approximately 17 mcm/day. Curve prices also edged lower but with less pronounced movements, remaining largely within range. The final session before winter contract expiry saw both spot and curve contracts erode premiums.
The UK system was generally well-supplied, opening 6 mcm/day long on Monday and reaching 13 mcm/day long by Wednesday.
LNG send-out remained flat at 8 mcm/day initially but was set to rise by 500 GWh/day to 2,400 GWh/day by Friday, with Dunkerque delivering higher volumes following strike action resolution. Five laden cargoes were inbound to UK shores.
Norwegian supply experienced fluctuations, with total exit nominations falling to 285.8 mcm/day on Tuesday due to a Troll compressor failure and maintenance. However, flows recovered to 311.9 mcm/day by Thursday. Mid-range storage facilities nominated injections of 24-26 mcm/day, whilst continental storage stood at 82.32%. Exports continued via IUK and BBL, though spreads narrowed between NBP and TTF day-ahead prices.